Using Regression to Make Fantasy Picks
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01-11-2013, 05:34 PM
Join Date: Jan 2013
Originally Posted by
Czech Your Math
If you include age, it should be an independent (X) variable.
What categories are counted in your fantasy league?
Yes, that's what I have it set as. The problem is when I have 150 players stats over the majority of their career, it doesn't tell me too much when I look at it all at once.
It's goals, assists, powerplay points, and hits. And it's an 8 man league.
What I've figured I'll do is sort it by each 20 players or so of similar ranking, giving me a better look at which players to expect to look for draft round per draft round.
I tend to think this is sort of like building a laser device to measure shoe size... much more complicated than it needs to be. Probably you should focus on situations where you expect players to outperform their past seasons, due to being at peak age, getting increased playing time, or having better linemates than in the past. Remember that goal scorers tend to peak earlier (many in their early 20s and most by their mid 20s) than playmakers.
Ya I realize all of that. I just felt that there would be a way to better back up my intuition, and I feel that having some numbers behind it really adds to it.
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