Thread: Prospect Info: Prospect Index 2012-2013
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01-11-2013, 05:05 PM
  #826
jfb392
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I think you end up with more busts, and a weaker pipeline following that methodology.

I think if you have a good mix up high upside in the pipeline, then it's time to build your depth with some safer-side talent, that you still project to the NHL.
I think you're missing what I'm saying.

I don't like drafting guys that project to be bottom line/pairing guys and that's it.
If you draft a second liner that ends up becoming a third liner, so be it, but I don't think you go after third liners that end up becoming fourth liners.
If you're going for a 3C, for example, he has to show some sort of quality that makes it possible for him to surprise and play in a top six role someday.

No one drafts a goaltender unless they have some standout quality that makes them a possible starter in the future, whether it's athleticism, size, or technical ability.
Usually the difference between a backup and a starter is the ability to be consistent, but that's difficult to scout when they are kids.
I think the same should apply for skaters.

Quote:
I don't consider McCabe a purely "safe" pick, I think he has plenty of upside, and his growth since being drafted shows that.

At what point prior to NHL success does the player change your mind? Because, since being drafted, McCabe has only gotten better (upside).
What has he really done to improve his upside since being drafted six months ago?
He seems to be following the normal progression one would expect, really.

He's a "jack of all trades master of none" type with no real standout qualities.
There are guys like that who end up being very valuable, but there are many more that are just average.

My real issue with the pick is that they passed on players I really liked.
Damon Severson is the total package with a cannon of a shot and has been a rock for Kelowna this year and Devin Shore has stepped in and looked really good, albeit for an absolutely atrocious Maine team, but his offensive hockey sense is the real selling point for me.
The only other one I wanted that was still available was Coda Gordon, who ended up going late, likely because of his skating issues caused by him breaking his femur (which I acknowledged at the time but didn't factor in, as I wasn't privy to those type of medical details, obviously).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I don't think 3rd line centers or NHL caliber defensemen are spare parts.
Well, I don't really think Kea is a third line center.
Even if he ends up becoming one, he's still not the type of player that I'd draft because he does not possess the tools to possibly be a top sixer in the future.

Also notice that I included 3C as part of the important parts (top six + 3C).
I can't say top nine because third line wingers aren't valuable as drafted players to me.

Quote:
I'd rather draft with the entire picture in mind, the entire picture is not scorers and #1 defensemen only. Drafting scorers in the 3rd round gets you Clarke MacArthur... woohoo
Well, that's still an asset that can net you something decent.
Mac didn't get us much but since he's left he's shown that he's probably worth more than what we got (3rd+4th).

Quote:
The difference is, the good ones... aren't readily available on the market.

And they do win you games... especially in the playoffs.
Take a look at past Cup champs and you'll notice there's not many homegrown players in their bottom six forwards.

Chicago: Burish (drafted in the 9th round eight years prior), Bolland (drafted in the 2nd round six years prior), Eager (traded for Vandermeer), Fraser (rights traded six years prior), Madden (FA), Kopecky (FA),
Boston: Campbell (part of Horton trade), Kelly (traded for 2nd rounder), Paille (traded for 3rd and cond. 4th), Peverley (traded for Wheeler and Stuart), Ryder (FA), Thornton (FA)
Los Angeles: Fraser (traded as part of Smyth salary dump), Gagné (FA), King (drafted in the 4th round five years prior), Lewis (drafted in the 1st round six years prior), Richardson (traded for a 2nd years ago), Stoll (part of Visnovsky trade)

I see lots of free agents and trade pieces in there, not many homegrown.
The only player drafted by the team they won the Cup with that is anything special is Bolland.
The jury is still out on King as far as I'm concerned, but he likely ends up becoming a third liner and not a top sixer.

Ideally, I'd play the odds and let someone else do the work for me.
Anyone you develop yourself is probably going to end up contributing to the success of another organization by the time they're fully ready just because of the nature of these types of players.

Quote:
I find it odd that you believe finding a "scorer" in the 3rd round is possible, but that Kea becoming a good 3rd line defensive forward is somehow not possible... That was your draft day thoughts, and oddly enough, they haven't changed. Just like with McCabe, not even a wonderful WJC performance has changed your mind.
Well, I'd much rather have a 3C that at least has some offense.
Kea has, for the most part, never really shown anything close to offensive prowess and just does not possess offensive tools.

Quote:
I think Kea's ceiling is a 3C (not discussing whether he reaches it or not, or even the odds of him reaching it), and it is quite an important position to have in the pipeline. Or haven't you noticed that there is a hole in that area throughout the organization?
I guess it's just semantics (I don't see Kea as having a 3C ceiling, you do) and I do understand that 3C is important and an organizational weakness, but what's the ETA on Kea being a fulltime 3C at the NHL level if he has that ability?
Two years of junior, ELC in the minors (maybe more), a few years to get acclimated.. a lot more than someone you can pick up by other means.

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