Using Regression to Make Fantasy Picks
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01-11-2013, 05:20 PM
Join Date: Jun 2011
It would be limited, but you could control for age (say 22-30), take a per-game average of the past three seasons per player and then look at the delta between last season and that average. You'd need to do some weeding out for injuries, etc. but for the most part you'd have a decent time finding guys who underperformed comapred to expectations last season, who would then be "buy low" candidates on the draft board.
You could also go to behindthenet.ca and just look for guys above a certain TOI/game who have a low PDO. Beyond looking in terms of value based on variance, I don't see a particularly good way of using statistical analysis to find good picks. Everything else is a dog's breakfast of assumptions about how the player will be used the coming season, who their linemates may be, their ozone starts, etc.
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