Using Regression to Make Fantasy Picks
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01-12-2013, 09:56 AM
Join Date: Jan 2013
Originally Posted by
Czech Your Math
Perhaps the most useful type of regression would be a time series. Basically, your dependent and independent variables are the same, except the independent variables are time lagged. For instance, for goals:
Y = B0 + M1X1 + M2X2 + ... where X1 is T-1, X2 is T-2
I.e., Y could be goals in 2012, X1 is goals in 2011, X2 is goals in 2010, etc., all for the same player. Another Y would be goals in 2011, with X1 then being goals in 2010, X2 goals in 2009, etc.
You can try different combos, but I would guess doing separate studies for each category would work best. Rather than just use raw goals, using adjusted GPG is probably going to yield more useful coefficients (otherwise variability in games may affect them as much or more than skill level).
I did a quick, simple study as an example, using (when possible) Y seasons of 2008-2012 for each of several players (Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Stamkos, St. Louis, H.Sedin, Kovalchuk, Thornton, and Iginla):
Adjusted Total GPG: Y = .128 + .406*X1 + .33*X2
Adjusted Total APG: Y = .292 + .531*X1 + .078*X2
(Y = per-game metric in Year T, X1 = same metric in Year T-1, X2 = same metric in Year T-2).
The further back you lag the series, the more observations you lose, and the more likely it is that those further lagged variables will be insignificant. Also the Y-intercept (e.g. .128 for GPG in the above example) is going to vary with skill level, so you may have to either group players by general skill level in each category, or not use a Y-intercept.
For GPG, lagged independent variables such as shots/game or Sh% might also be useful.
I understand the concept behind this, but I do not know how to execute this in excel. Given that my draft is in 4 hours, I don't think I'm going to have enough time to do this.
I did go ahead though and sort players into groups of similar skill level/draft position. The groups range in size from 4-8 players. I also have a draft strategy, where each round I am picking from a corresponding group. I have 6 groups for forwards, 2 for defensemen and 2 for goalies.
This strategy gives me a good grasp of which players to look out for, and when. The only really big issue is that they aren't organized by position, so I have to be monitoring that on the fly so that I don't draft 4 centremen and only 1 winger (our league has 2 positions of each C, LW, RW, 4 D, 2 Goalies and 1 Utility spot).
All in all I feel comfortable and confident going into this draft.
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