Using Regression to Make Fantasy Picks
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01-12-2013, 04:53 PM
Join Date: Jan 2013
Let's use Ovechkin's 7 seasons from '06-'12 as an example. Calculate the Y variable in the manner you believe is most reliable for your study. For goals, I might suggest using "adjusted GPG." Once you have calculated this, it will be your dependent (Y) variable and should be in one column. So Ovechkin's adjusted GPG for seasons '06-'12 might be in cells C1-C7. Next, label your independent (X) variables, which will be time lagged from your Y variable. You might label them T-1, T-2, etc. You would then copy and paste cells C1-C6 into cells D2-D7 for variable T-1. You don't copy cell C7, because that would be his adjusted GPG for 2012, and couldn't be used until at least 2013. You don't copy anything into cell D1, because he has no data before 2006. For variable T-2, you would copy cells C1-C5 (or D2-D6) into cells E3-E7. Again, for each season you lag, you would lose one observation (i.e., if only using T-1, then lose Y for 2006... if using T-2 also, then also lose Y for 2007). You don't want any gaps in your X variables (e.g., having a T-1, but no T-2), as this will affect your results. If you only used T-1 & T-2 as X variables, and found T-2 to be an insignificant variable, then you would recaulculate the regression only using T-1.
Well, turns out my draft got postponed till tomorrow. Perfect, gives me time to try this out.
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