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01-13-2013, 12:23 AM
  #304
seanlinden
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
you're ignoring market factors here, or at least assuming they will all be negative for Vancouver.

Waiting a year also opens up other team's ability to manufacture cap space - with amnesty buyouts available next summer. It could create a much better market for Luongo. You could also see teams become more desperate for goaltending options if their current options don't work out. What happens if next summer Reimer/Screvins don't work out in Toronto? It is just as likely (if not more) that they don't develop into the answer for the Leafs, then there is that they establish themselves as solid starters for a NHL team. What happens if Markstrom's injury issues continue and he doesn't take that next step into solid NHL starter? Or Byzgalov has another terrible year in Philly? Or Jersey's goalie prospects don't show they can take over for Brodeur? Or TBay finds that Lindback is not a capable starter for a team trying to contend? Or Chicago goes another year with more question marks with Crawford? Or San Jose realizes that Niemi isn't going to be able to carry that team?

There's a long list of question marks in a lot of NHL cities with goaltending. Not all of those question marks will be answered for every one of those teams. Do you not think that given that, and the created cap flexibility that the league will make available to teams next summer, could also boost Luongo's value, regardless of what role he plays with the team this year?

I'm guessing you ignored all that, because in the Leaf's world it's just easier and more fun to assume that any player that could go there would be in the worst possible situation for the other team to trade, so it'll make everything rosy for the Leafs.

For every assumption that Luongo's value could drop if the team waits till next year, there's a legitimate argument that his value could go up by waiting. And really, if we're again going back to suggesting his value is that of a 3rd/4th liner and a 2nd rate project prospect - which is CRAP value however you look at it, then there's just no harm in waiting. Again, for a team with a Cup window now, keeping Luongo makes them a better team than getting a return which doesn't improve our lineup or gives us a better shot at Cup success NOW. Even if we miss out on that great return of marginal players, the Canucks have lost nothing really, and instead of kept the best goalie duo that has been the catalyst in back to back Presidents' trophies. They have several good 3rd/4th liners already and are loaded with 2nd rate project prospects, so if we lose out on that, so what?? There's no rush to make a trade just for the sake of making it - which is what is being suggested here by saying we should take whatever return we can for him now.

Bottom line, you trade Luongo if it improves your chances at winning the Cup now, because that's where this team is now - or if you get such a stupidly good futures package that you just can't ignore it. For players we can replace through free agency, or acquire for mid-level picks, and project prospects we just don't need, it makes much more sense to keep Luongo. Especially in a shortened season where having two top goalies will give your team a huge competitive advantage.
I'm assuming market factors are negligible. Teams might become more desparate for goaltending help, and teams might become less desparate. None of us, Gillis, or Nonis, are in a qualified position to say with certainty which will happen.

What is certain, is that as long as Luongo's role is reduced, so will his value.

As for cap space, I wasn't factoring it in, but I'm really not sure how you can objectively think that next year is going to help that situation. On the eve of training camp, there are presently 7 teams who couldn't add Luongo (without subtracting anyone from the roster), one of which is the team he's on. The agent pool probably has less than $40m league-wide to be added for this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
This makes no sense.
Do you have any idea how a market works?

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