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01-14-2013, 02:04 PM
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garret9
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C/RW Kyle Wellwood: #TeamWelly stats

<EDIT>Thanks to Gm0ney for spotting some errors that were in my interpetations of the ES/PP production. I must have been reading wrong years twice, 2010 instead of 2011, when I was scrolling up and down on my little blackberry</EDIT>


I like doing these breakdowns because the confirm things that I thought when I've watched, and sometimes they've denied old positions or created new opinions.
Wellwood is definitely one of those breakdowns.

Even Strength and PP Production
YEARGPESTOI/60ESP/60ESGESAPPTOI/60PPP/60PPGPPASOGSH%
2007 5909.41 0.97 0306 2.97 4.11 057 57 14.0
2008 7410.43 1.09 0806 2.91 3.07 103 94 19.1
2009 7511.73 1.30 1109 1.77 1.81 032 98 14.3
2010 2513.25 1.55 0507 0.41 4.19 001 50 10.0
2011 7712.69 2.15 1423 1.89 3.30 046 93 19.4
There appears to be many small overlapping reasons for Wellwood's career year:
*Career high sh% (thank you Kane for creating the easy picking rebounds)
*Career high and team high A2/60 (more than double his previous career high)
*Career high total TOI (due to games played and TOI/gp)
While some seem to say Wellwood's stats were padded (something I always believed), what I didn't notice until today, was that Wellwood had the most amount of set-up success of his career, with his highest A1/60 in his career. This may indeed show some validity to his career highs.
Wellwood has twice hit extreme high shooting percentages which isn't too hard to believe; he shoots at a very low rate, which makes him more susceptible to natural variation than most. I'd say that 12-15 is probably the "norm" for him, which is still extremely high for most players,.

Even Strength Advance Stats
YEARRelQoCOZSRelCorsiCorsiG/60A1/60P/60
2007 -0.212 58.5 04.0 06.91 0.32 0.72 1.73
2008 0.560 55.1-05.7-05.21 0.62 0.62 1.81
2009 0.546 45.9-04.2 01.16 0.68 0.61 1.69
2010 -0.170 51.3 18.5 22.12 0.65 0.55 1.75
2011 0.105 60.5 15.8 12.65 0.74 0.75 1.80
2007: Wellwood's last year in TO, tuns out to be his least successful for PTS/GP, especially only 9 ES points. He's being sheltered slightly and pushed offensively but not much comes of it other than some PP points and decent possession numbers.
2008: In Van, Wellwood is placed on the third line and starts facing tougher competition and a little bit less OZS. Unsurprisingly his possession numbers suffer, but surprisingly his ES P/60 go up. He also has a very successful PP with 10 goals (more than 1/3 of his total points).
2009: Next season in Van Wellwood gets pushed into the D-zone as Van starts pushing Sedin's into easier and softer minutes as they age. As expected his ES P/60 falters but what's really impressive is that Wellwood starts out-chancing his opponents in this shutdown role (albeit not extremely) showing a much improved game. Unfortunately Wellwood's SH% falters to his normal (but above most players average) level, as does his PP points so Vancouver doesn't think of keeping him.
2010: Wellwood pulls a Miettinen coming in late in the season and does a pretty good job. He's used similarly as TO did in 2007 but with the much improved possession abilities formed from his time in Van, Wellwood posts career high Corsi and RelCorsi numbers.
2011: Wellwood comes to WPG and finds his role, burying Kane's rebounds and/or setting him up. Wellwood does a good job at pushing the play forward. He faces tougher competition in SJS but not exactly being sheltered, but is very strongly pushed into the O-zone.

Summary
Last season Wellwood's ES P/60 are second only to Kane and he admits that Noel wanted to use him more but he wasn't in the condition to be able to. He stated in the off-season that his goal was to change this, hoping to become a real plus on the top6 than just a support piece or a hindrance. He made a bit of a gamble signing a 1 year contract, possibly hoping to replicate last season's success to score a better contract for 2013-14+.


1-2 Years in the Future
As I've hinted on here many times before, I think our top6's current structure is needing one more upgrade, and that upgrade is with Wellwood's spot. The way I see it, is that only one of Antropov or Wellwood will be re-signed -if either of them are- for a spot on the Jets' 3rd line next season. If Wellwood has another career year in a top6 role, it may be financial better to re-sign Antropov (or another) instead of Wellwood. It's too bad because Welly's hockey smarts and hands are a real plus, but unfortunately his size and skating are a bit of a hindrance for him to find a real full-time/long-time role.

1: Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler
2: Ladd-x-Little
3: x-x-x/Wellwood


Last edited by garret9: 01-14-2013 at 06:31 PM.
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