Thread: Pre-Game Talk: Habs Training Camp View Single Post
01-14-2013, 02:43 PM
#887
Talks to Goalposts
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Myron Gaines Kostitsyn played with Plekanec for long stretches, he wasn't always a 3rd liner. Check his game log from 2010-2011, he had something like 6 goals in 9 games to start the season, then look after that. http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/gamelo...drei-kostitsyn You can also see long droughts in 2012 and many people unlike yourself remember those droughts. http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/gamelo...drei-kostitsyn When he was demoted it wasn't only because he was in a scoring drought, it's because he completely disappeared. Kostitsyn was way too far inconsistent, not only in his production, which is not a big problem for a 3rd liner, but in his implication in the game. I couldn't care less about his projected numbers, most of the time, the situation called for him being demoted, he had to be held accountable for his poor play.
The mathematics of being a half a point per game player is necessarily going to produce noticeable hot and cold streaks. They score often enough to get more than a few multipoint games, which also means they are going to score points in under half the games played. So you're going to see clusters in scoring across the 82 game schedule that really don't mean anything except random chance.

Compare Kostitsyn's hot and cold streaks to players who score at a similar rate. You'll find that they pretty much all look like they came to play for short stretches and then disappear. Its not psychology, its math. A random distribution does not look like a uniform distribution especially around .5 points per game.

Players who score more like 1.0 PPG look more consistent because they are unlikely to not score in a game while players who are more like .25 also look more uniform because they are unlikely to have multiple point games to cluster around.

Look at the comparable you used in Colby Armstrong when he was about .5 PPG in 08-09. Same kind of streaks of futility punctuated with hot streaks.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/gamelo...olby-armstrong

Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 01-14-2013 at 02:50 PM.