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01-15-2013, 02:14 AM
garret9's Avatar
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LW/C/RW Alexander Burmistrov: Stats round two

I kind of already did a breakdown of Burmistrov ->Here<- but under a different format... so here we go!

2010 7411.51 1.27 0614 0.30 0.00 00 1.14 0.7101 44.9093 06.5
2011 7613.20 1.32 1213 1.22 1.95 12 1.77 0.4510 37.5123 10.6
Even Strength: Burmistrov improved a bit here, especially putting the puck at the net. We all know his weakness in over-handling it so a decent jump in SOG could be a good sign. His ES scoring overall didn't improve by much but I'll show in a second how it's not so bad, even though his poor SH% in 2010 might be padding the improvements.
Power Play: ATL didn't even have a shot on net for the power play when Burmi was on, as he was probably only sent out there when there was 10 seconds left. Burmistrov this season was the Jets' 7th best forward at the PP (Stapleton at point doesn't count) so it comes no surprise that he came 7th in PP TOI, not getting all that much.
Penalty Kill: We all saw how Burmi excelled here both in the big leagues and the IceCaps. Of the regulars (Slater, Little, Glass, Antropov, Burmistrov and Ladd), Burmi had the best SA/60, 2nd best GA/60 (Ladd wins), and 2nd best point production (Little wins). Burmi's SA/60 in ATL would have been good enough to still beat Glass, Slater and Little.

Even Strength Advance Stats
2010 -0.339 56.5 -2.8 7.18 0.42 0.35 0.49 1.27
2011 -0.097 58.7 7.9 7.71 0.60 0.42 0.30 1.32
Burmistrov has shown decent progression, although more defensively than offensively... BUT, the offensive progression is still there. The unfortunate thing to Burmistrov is that his secondary assists have dropped almost equally as his the rest of his scoring has gone up. The reason why I don't normally show secondary assists is although it takes talent to be part of the play and such, they can be incredibly volatile for any player year to year. Progression is never linear. Kane's goal scoring slowed down his second year and Bogosian was on a downward spiral until last season; Burmistrov on the other hand improved his goal scoring rate by 42.9% and primary assist rate by 20.0%, while facing tougher competition levels and taking on more minutes.
Burmi faced tougher minutes than the year before but was still being sheltered somewhat with Kane, Antropov and Wellwood by Noel. Burmistrov actually beat his competition in his second year, something that took Kane 3 years and Bogosian is yet to do (although he was really friggin' close this year). This to me is a large indication of development as he is lining up less against 4th liners and more 2nd/3rd liners (mostly 3rd) and but handling them pretty easily.
A really good comparison for Burmistrov is probably Ryan O'Reilly (hopefully other than the KHL bit). They had nearly identical ES scoring rates, Corsi and QoC levels for year 1 and year 2, and plus their junior stats in their draft year. Both have a bit more value defensively than offensively, yet most scouts happily project them as top6.

Forwards who have had similar PTS/GP at the age of 20 since 1990 (in order of goals scored):
Daymond Langkow (15 in 79 games)
James van Riemsdyk (15 in 78 games)
Alex Frolov (14 in 79 games)
Jeff O'Neill (14 in 72 games)
Patrick Poulin (14 in 67 games)
Matt Stajan (14 in 69 games)
Corey Perry (13 in 56 games)
Alexander Burmistrov (13 in 76 games)
Scott Hartnell (12 in 82 games)
Mike Richards (11 in 79 games)
Martin Erat (9 in 80 games)
Todd Harvey (9 in 69 games)
Henrik Sedin (9 in 82 games)

For his AHL stint about "not leading team in points" check out this comparison with Wheeler last season:
Player A Oct-Nov: 24GP 2G 11A 13PTS 3.57sh% 0.54pts/gp 2.33 SOG/gp
Player B Oct-Nov: 22GP 2G 09A 11PTS 3.85sh% 0.50pts/gp 2.36 SOG/gp
Creepy... A is Wheeler and B is Burmistrov
Both were players who were dominating games but getting no luck with the points.

Burmistrov is a pretty effing good PKer. His SA/60 actually are second best in the league for players with at least 0.75 TOI/60 of PK and GA/60 in the same group are 30th. Not bad at 20.
Out of 368 forwards (~12 per a team) with 40+ games played, Burmistrov's p/60 comes at 245th (pos 8 on most teams). Players around his scoring rates: Colin Wilson, Devin Setoguchi, Matt Duchene, Ryan Getzlaf (down year for him)... He was a top9 NHL calibre player at 20... I don't know why we have to be so hard on him.

1-2 Years in the Future
I have faith in both Scheifele and Burmistrov. I think they both have potential avg 1C upside with looking to trend as worse case scenario being an avg 2C. I think with Scheifele's more offensive vision/setup game and Burmistrov's more defensive game they trend differently but could turn out to be 2/3 of a great C depth team. I prefer to hope for the best but prepare for the worst so in these future projections I will just keep everyone at their current level. In that case his current level is a solid 3rd line player.

1: Kane-Jokinen/x-Wheeler
2: Ladd-x-Little
3: Ponikarovsky-Burmistrov-Wellwood/x

Last edited by garret9: 01-15-2013 at 02:24 AM.
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