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01-15-2013, 05:45 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Waterloo Ontario
Country: Canada
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Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
I wonder how many 3rd round draft picks average ~245 games in the NHL
In the 6 drafts between 2000-2005 there were 30 players drafted in the 3rd round who have played 200 or more NHL games (actually 199 or more). It is actually pretty consistent. About 1 in 6 3rd rounders play 200 games.

In that group about 8-9 players would be at least a step above Fistric. So roughly speaking you are trading away a 1/15 chance to get a player with greater impact for a guy who can play for you now.

From this perspective it is a win for the Oilers. However, if Fistric was not going to be in the cards for Dallas than a 3rd is a nice return. DRaft picks tend to have more value than the odds might suggest, the difference between a generic 3rd and a mid level 2nd is not that great.

So really, this is a very good hockey trade.

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