Draft day: Couturier to MTL for Seth Jones
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01-15-2013, 11:35 AM
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nova Scotia
Originally Posted by
Warning math ahead.....I am not saying the scouts know nothing. I am talking about where the percentage of studs are found at each position in the draft. The heavy percentage of high end forwards in the nhl are drafted in the top of the draft. Look at the top ten last year as an example:
Malkin-2 Stamkos-1 Giroux-22 Spezza-2 Kovalchuk-1 Kessel 5 Neal-33 Tavares-1 H.Sedin-3 Elias-51.
That's 8 taken in round 1, with 7 of those in the top 5. That is a small sample size, but even as you go down the ranks a heavy portion of scoring forwards come within the top half of the 1st rd and very few outside of rd 1. Besides Neal and Elias, only 7 more forwards out of the top 30 scoring forwards last year were not picked in rd 1 (I included Ray Whitney as a 1st rd pick since he was picked 23 overall pack when there where under 23 teams). So that's 21 out of 30 1st rd picks with only two of those 1st rounders coming after pick 14 in Giroux and Eberle. So that is 19 out 30 coming from spots in the draft for those teams who have missed the playoffs.
Now look at defensemen. Only 2 of the top 10 scorers for defensemen last year were taken in the 1st rd, Karlsson and Pieteragelo. Expand it to 30 and it is only 14 in the 1st rd. If you want to look as ice time to include top end defensive defenseman, only 9 of the top 30 dmen for ice time last year we're taken in the 1st round. So anyway you look at it you have greater than 50% chance of finding a top end defenseman after rd 1 no matter what metric you use where as you only have about a 33% chance of finding a top end scoring after the 1st 14 picks of rd one. So you have a top 10 pick, it is better to draft a scoring forward versus a defensemen because there is a better chance of finding a great defensemen after round one than there is of finding a great forward.
Nice bit of digging for the truth. But people are still going to Seth is a #1 D man and Couts is a #2 C at best. No truth at all to this, but that is what they will say.
In fact, I will go even further. In the past 20 years, here are the D-Men to go 1st overall...where Jones is currently ranked:
Do these names scream DOMINATE #1 D-MAN???
It is just 20 years of proof showing that D-man are SO VERY hard to predict. But I am sure Seth is different right
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