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01-16-2013, 12:35 AM
  #5
garret9
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This is everyone's Fenwick Close number. It is similar to Corsi where it is a goal/shot differential and estimates possession time. The Close in the title specifies that it's only a measurement when the game is close (less than 2 goal difference); the reason for this is both teams act differently when the game is pretty far apart as the losing team takes risks and the winning team goes into shutdown mode. It's also a decent predictor of success (although doesn't include goaltenders influence at all). It was how advance stat guys were saying early that STL and LA were better than they were doing and Minnesota was going to collapse. *called it*

TEAMTOTALHOMEAWAY
STL 55.07 57.93 52.27
PIT 55.02 56.62 53.53
DET 54.39 57.94 51.49
LAK 53.60 55.02 52.12
CHI 52.82 52.89 52.75
BOS 52.60 54.19 50.92
SJS 52.19 53.18 51.23
VAN 51.44 51.61 51.25
PHI 51.14 52.76 49.28
NJD 51.08 52.27 49.84
WPG 51.05 53.46 48.62
OTT 50.90 51.74 50.03
FLA 50.35 52.40 48.06
NYR 49.90 51.66 48.17
COL 49.77 51.35 48.00
WSH 49.71 51.72 47.64
DAL 49.51 50.70 48.26
NYI 49.18 50.03 48.49
PHX 49.17 50.11 48.20
TBL 48.31 51.63 45.05
CAR 48.17 50.21 46.15
ANA 48.12 47.25 48.94
BUF 48.10 49.77 46.49
EDM 48.08 49.97 46.40
CBJ 47.53 51.27 44.43
CGY 47.47 51.24 44.01
MTL 46.81 47.78 45.90
TOR 46.70 47.48 45.78
NSH 46.08 47.41 44.68
MIN 44.91 45.45 44.36
It does show the WPG home and away discrepancy.
Nashville is the only head scratcher but I think it may because they go into "shutdown mode" earlier than most teams (ex: lead of one goal instead of two) so they are getting outchanced more but the danger isn't equivelent. (Totally just guessing here)


Last edited by garret9: 01-16-2013 at 11:01 AM.
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