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01-16-2013, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by bearcounty17 View Post
I wont judge either Nail or Galy until the reach the NHL but I have to set something straight

Since all you Hall fans like pro rated stats..
Hall was on pace to score 70 points if not for his injuries
Seguin scored 67 in pretty much a full season(81 games)
Hall avg 15:06 ESToi and 3:03 PPToi
Seguin avg 14:27 ESToi and 2:27 PPtio
so Hall, pro rated, would have played 49 more PPmins and 53 more ESmins
It takes seguin 13.27min to score a PP point and 22.5 min to score an ESP
It takes Hall 8.9 minutes to score a PP point and 28.8 min to score ESP
If seguin playes the same minutes he ends up collecting 4 more ppp and 2 more esp putting his point total to 73p, 54ESP and 19PPP
If Hall played Seguin's minutes he would end up scoring 41 ESP and 22PPP for a total of 63 points. 4 points less than Seguin put up in the same time . By switching thier ice time seguin outscores Hall by 10 points, a pretty large margin.
Hall also has 2.3% more offensive zone starts.

I understand why some people would prefer Hall based on intangibles and drive but for anyone to say he's more productive is just flat out wrong. Julien likes to roll 4 lines so the top six fowards play less than most other teams. Hopefully he will change that with Seguin so we can all see just how much of a beast he is.

Another example is if you gave both of them Stamkos' TOI you would get
Seguin: 64ESP 23PPP= 87 Points, 10 less than Stamkos.
Hall: 40ESP 35PPP= 75 points, 22 less than Stamkos.

Seguin is also the way better on even strength which does matter cause if you need an advantage to put the points up, your putting your team at a disadvantage. What happens when the refs put the whistles away? Less production, less wins.
There are a ton of different factors in which you can value a player but here's an easy one.

Who'd you rather have? The point leader of the #2 seed, annual playoff team, who had just about everyone they played bring their A-game to beat the former Cup champs or the player who(pro-rated) would of been 6 points behind the point leader of the 14th seed, annual lottery pick team, who most likely saw as much back-up goalies as any other teams and didn't have teams trying to send a message by beating the best.

In time I think the gap is only going to get further. Most experts saw Hall as the more NHL ready prospect and Seguin a little more of a project with a higher ceiling. I'm not trying to bash Hall because I like him as a player and think he would be great on the Bruins but I believe Seguin to be the superior of the two.
Hall faced better 5on5 competition based on Corsi Statistics 0.858 vs 0.389

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