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01-17-2013, 03:57 PM
#32
seventieslord
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Join Date: Mar 2006
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe Why can't both be true? I'm sure he often played 30 minutes per game when the Oilers were behind. And he probably also often played 20 minutes per game during Oilers blowouts - there are definitely tons of first hand reports that talk about the Oilers cutting down ice time for their stars during blowouts. And what does it average to? I do agree with you about one thing though - it's pretty deplorable that nobody has the exact calculation used in the estimates.
I've seen these calculations at some point. They're not complex. The situational numbers are based on (very) reasonable estimates of time the team played in each situation – based on PP opportunities for and against. From there it looks at what percentage of time each player was likely to have played in each situation based on what percentage of the GF/GA they had.

I distinctly remember someone explaining the “fudge factor” or whatever you want to call it, was to multiply first liners/pairings by 1.2 and second liners/pairings by 1.1 to reflect real life observations and the higher frequency of goals that tend to happen when they’re on the ice.

I’m sure this was posted at some point. An “exact formula”, maybe not, but we all know enough algebra to build that formula ourselves.