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01-17-2013, 06:57 PM
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Doctor No
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NHL Goaltender Strength of Schedule (2010-11 through 2011-12)

This is the first step of something that's going to end up on my goaltender page (since I could do what I describe below as far back as I have game logs, so to the mid-1980s):

http://hockeygoalies.org

(Go to biographies, and then each goaltender)

This is a first attempt to quantify the differing strengths of schedule that goaltenders face in the NHL (for the 2011-12 season here).

First, I developed an estimate of each team's strength - using their entire (regular season plus postseason data), I started with each team's goal differential (GF minus GA), and then adjusted for schedule (each team's average opponent's goal differential). This is an iterative process, but does converge to a metric that estimates how many goals better (or worse) a team is compared to average during the 2011-12 season. To give you an idea of the endpoints, Boston was at the top with a rating of 0.655, and Columbus was at the bottom with a rating of -0.666. I also calculate home-ice advantage as worth 0.286 goals in the 2011-12 season.

Next, I take each goaltender's opponents, weighted by minutes against each, and find the average strength of opponent. If they played on the road, I add in half of the home ice advantage (and if they played at home, I subtract).

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