The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs
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01-18-2013, 04:07 AM
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Middle of Nowhere
Originally Posted by
Let's say hypothetically we trade Plekanec, Markov, and Cole, for three 1st rounders, leaving aside the fact that we could probably do better on the trade market.
We're not getting Max Pacioretty 3 times, and we're not getting Terry Ryan 3 times. Looking at the Timmins-era 1st rounders, we'd get:
Andrei Kostitsyn, 10th overall
Kyle Chipchura, 18th overall
Carey Price, 5th overall
David Fischer, 20th Overall
Ryan McDonagh, 12th overall
Max Pacioretty, 22nd overall
Louis Leblanc, 18th overall
Jarrod Tinordi, 22nd overall
Nathan Beaulieu, 17th overall
Alex Galchenyuk, 3rd overall
Out of the six players for which we have had enough time to evaluate, we see three fantastic NHLers (50%) who are on par with Plekanec,Cole, and Markov; a 2nd liner who is a step down (Andrei Kostitsyn) and two busts (Fischer and Chipchura).
Thus, if we trade Plekanec, Cole, and Markov, the
most likely outcome
is to get 2 NHLers, either 2 very good ones or one very good one and one decent one, with one bust. That's a decent return. We'll also have cleared 15.25 million worth of cap space, giving us the means to make noise on the UFA market and upgrade. And again, this leaves aside the fact that I think we could do better than 3 1st rounders.
You cant expect to trade for something better than a 13-15th pick.
Otherwise, the implications involved in such a trade implies that there is more on the line (since it will likely be around Subban or Price).
The success rate for the picks between 15th and 60th. (trades involving 4thD, and average 2nd liner for a 2nd round picks are the ones that occur in such a process...) is around 30%/40%.
In a great year like 2003, we have between 15 and 18 good picks. Which means that several of the vets would be traded for peanuts.
The problem that some people dont understand here is that there is a difference between the actual value of the picks and the value of the players after the signing of the second contract.
Originally Posted by
Like I said, we'd be better off trying to trade for prospects. There's always some team out there who's a contender who is looking to trade for good vets. Last year Washington held some other team's pick and they drafted Filip Forsberg 13th overall. I mentioned Bobby Ryan earlier in this thread... those are the kinds of moves we should be making.
And I've stated these BEFORE the picks were made and BEFORE Bobby Ryan became a 30 goal scorer. We have vets to deal that other clubs will be interested in. If say Washington were to come back and have another great year, we should do everything we can at the deadline to pry away Forsberg from them. If they aren't willing to do it, move on to the next team and try again... And if it's a 1st rounder, then consider it depending on what we're giving up. If we want more, ask for it...
Good picks or good prospects are not traded, im sorry, but thats how it is. Forsberg wont be moved, unless we give them a much better player that kills any logic behind such a move (Carey P. or PK S, possibly Max P.)
Of you course you have to made the deal before Ryan become a 30 goal scorer, the problem is that no one is going to give away a 30 goal-scorer, and especially not if he's under ELC and 20 or 21 years old...
NO ONE is going to do deal you such a player.
Since the lockout, good prospects traded means :
-That the player is underachieving and wont be as good as planned at the draft-day. (Setoguchi, Mueller, Frolik, Brule...)
-That somebody massively screwed up, in which case, your job might be threatened. (Rask, McDonagh)
-The other end of the deal involves another prospect (Schenn, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Tarasenko, Hodgson...).
The number of good prospects traded to a team that is arguably in a situation similar to a rebuilding is close to none. For the simple reason that teams in such a situation dont have the tools to receive such prospects.
Gardiner and Colborne are the only ones i believe.
I also wish that the people favourable to a rebuild would remember that the 2005 lockout was a huge help for teams struggling with young players...
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