The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs
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01-18-2013, 07:38 AM
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Canberra, Australia
Originally Posted by
You cant expect to trade for something better than a 13-15th pick.
Otherwise, the implications involved in such a trade implies that there is more on the line (since it will likely be around Subban or Price).
The success rate for the picks between 15th and 60th. (trades involving 4thD, and average 2nd liner for a 2nd round picks are the ones that occur in such a process...) is around 30%/40%.
In a great year like 2003, we have between 15 and 18 good picks. Which means that several of the vets would be traded for peanuts.
The problem that some people dont understand here is that there is a difference between the actual value of the picks and the value of the players after the signing of the second contract.
Good picks or good prospects are not traded, im sorry, but thats how it is. Forsberg wont be moved, unless we give them a much better player that kills any logic behind such a move (Carey P. or PK S, possibly Max P.)
Of you course you have to made the deal before Ryan become a 30 goal scorer, the problem is that no one is going to give away a 30 goal-scorer, and especially not if he's under ELC and 20 or 21 years old...
NO ONE is going to do deal you such a player.
Since the lockout, good prospects traded means :
-That the player is underachieving and wont be as good as planned at the draft-day. (Setoguchi, Mueller, Frolik, Brule...)
-That somebody massively screwed up, in which case, your job might be threatened. (Rask, McDonagh)
-The other end of the deal involves another prospect (Schenn, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Tarasenko, Hodgson...).
The number of good prospects traded to a team that is arguably in a situation similar to a rebuilding is close to none. For the simple reason that teams in such a situation dont have the tools to receive such prospects.
Gardiner and Colborne are the only ones i believe.
I also wish that the people favourable to a rebuild would remember that the 2005 lockout was a huge help for teams struggling with young players...
1) I'm perfectly happy with picks in the 18-30 range, particularly for a deep draft like 2013.
2) High picks do get traded, see Jordan Staal, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, and Symeon Varlameov trades as examples.
3) Your argument that "it's never been done before" is not a valid argument against innovation. Innovative strategies by definition have never been done before, as such your logic is completely circular; i.e. you're arguing against innovation on the basis that innovation is innovative.
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