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01-18-2013, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
We are a very different team NOW, but 16 months ago we were pretty similar to the previous season. We lost Hamrlik and Wiznewski, but we gained Eric Cole, Emelin and Diaz. Spacek, Gill, Cammy, Kostitsyn, Jacques Martin were all there. Read the HF boards from last year -- the Habs board AND the general board -- almost everybody felt the Habs were a legit playoff team as we'd been the past few years, many people saying we'd finish even higher. ON PAPER, the Habs had question marks on defense but overall appeared at least as strong.

But my point actually wasn't even about the Habs, it was about the general habit of putting too much stock in last year's standings when it comes to predicting this year's standings. Just because a team WAS stronger or weaker last year often has little bearing on how they'll actually do now, which is why the only guarantee is that a couple of solid teams will drop (as the Habs did last year) and hereafter be viewed as 'weak', while a handful of weak/bubble teams will come outta' nowhere (LA, NJ) and re-brand themselves as strong teams.
The best predictor of next year's standings is always last year's standings. Check out the standings from year-to-year, they are extremely correlated.

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