Brian Strait (Claimed by NY Islanders)
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01-20-2013, 08:36 AM
Can you like, shutup
Join Date: Mar 2009
Originally Posted by
I cannot trust anything that takes a team statistic, gives it out on an individual basis, and then bases an advanced statistic around it.
Why on earth would that be your hang up with Corsi? Are you skeptical of a player's individual ability to influence this statistic? Do you think that somebody might believe Dupuis is as good as Crosby if they played on the same line all year and shared the same Corsi rating?
Corsi isn't a stat that you sort by to determine effectiveness, ability, or talent. It simply tells us what the puck is doing when they are on the ice. Players with strong Corsi ratings generate a lot more shots for than against, and shots have been found to heavily correlate with scoring chances, which obviously correlate with goals. That is the connection that Corsi makes, and while it's not perfect, it has significant predictive value when used within it's limitations. Quality of teammates, competition, adjusting for zone starts, drawing from an adequate sample size, all those things are important. Most of the people who bash Corsi are the same people who go on BTN and pick out a few out of context statistical anomalies and go LOL ADVANCED STATS. These are also likely the same people who treat basic counting stats like goals, assists, wins for goalies, etc. as the hockey gospel.
Baseball went through the same exact phase 15-20 years ago with the same kind of arguments against it. How many people believed that pitchers had a significant influence on balls that were put in play before DIPS was invented? How many people were convinced that bunting, stealing bases, and sacrifice flies were the correct play in countless situations? How many people thought like Joe Morgan before Moneyball was popularized?
I guess I just don't get it. Why must the view on hockey sabremetrics be so polarized? Can't people recognize the value in a statistic just because it is not a magic 8 ball for evaluating player ability? There will never be one in hockey, just like goals and assists aren't all encompassing but can provide a basic look into player ability. Corsi is that except it's more precise, more focused, because it attempts to tackle what is the most basic goal of the sport: being on the ice for more goals scored than your opponents. If you have a lot of guys like that on your team chances are you're going to be in pretty good shape.
I'm sort of rambling here but people need to open their eyes and at least attempt to understand what it is they're bashing before dismissing it outright. I can at least respect that.
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