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01-20-2013, 06:29 PM
  #110
Brad Tolliver
Terror Goes Into
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Overtime
Posts: 4,073
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pajicz View Post
As a Niners fan, I'd still go with Alex. Some say that he's a game-manager. So what? He's a good game-manager, and that's enough for this team. Stats of his last two (or 1,5) games:

25/27, 304 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT. That's 92,6% completion percentage and 153,2 QB rating...
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
this move will come back to bite harbaugh and the 49ers in the ass
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
To consider it a desperation move to go back to the starting QB that was playing pretty damn well before his injury is exaggerating the situation. The reality is that Smith is the best guy to help win now for this team. Kaepernick's confidence is irrelevant at this stage as he's young and it can be built back up again. This team is a Super Bowl contending team but not with a QB that needs in-game learning experiences or on-the-job training. Even if he turns it around now, he's got no playoff experience and will again have to learn on the fly. The last two weeks, Kaepernick hasn't played well enough to sit another QB who was hot before injury.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
3-0 as a starter where in two games, he hasn't done any better than Smith. Yes, he has potential to be better than Smith. He is not now and that's the point. He had that game against Chicago where he looked great and has been average with flashes since. You want to talk about conceivable records then you could say that the 49ers would have been in the Super Bowl if it wasn't for a kick returner with Smith in charge. His record the two seasons under Harbaugh is more impressive than a conceivable 3-0 where he didn't look any better than Smith had in two of those three games.

As for the experience argument, there's a vast difference between a young player who has limited in-game experience going into the world of the playoffs and a player that may not have playoff experience himself but has had many years of regular season experience to fall back on. Kaepernick has neither and his being green is showing more and more as teams figure him out. He's not the guy to go to yet for the rest of the year or beyond.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
This has got to be one of the worst arguments I've ever seen because it contains so many slants, biases, and assumptions that it's not worth acknowledging. The simple reality of the matter is that Smith is the better player at this stage...period. Saying Smith tends to struggle against better opponents is irrelevant as that is the case with everyone. The better your opponent is, the harder it is. It's pretty simple.

The only question that matters is who is the better QB right now that gives the team the best chance at winning right now. The answer is Alex Smith and not Colin Kaepernick. So far in three games, Kaepernick has struggled in two of them. Three of four if you include the first St. Louis game he played in. By your logic, that means Kaepernick struggles in 66 to 75% of his games and he's shown problems against worse opponents.

I would have no problems cutting Smith and going with Kaepernick next season based on the potential I've seen. But right now with a kid that has a grand total of three starts under his belt and a guy that will have at most seven starts before the playoffs, he's just not ready to be the guy that gets them to the Super Bowl.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
I take it you don't really understand what that statistic means and what the problem is with you using it. Considering that takes into account every play of this season and how Kaepernick was used before he was the starter, it definitely is skewed because of the small sample size of plays he ran as a backup that were successful because nobody was prepared for it.

Smith is 19-5 during the two seasons under Harbaugh ignoring St. Louis since he didn't finish it. That's a hell of a lot of wins and a hell of a lot more of a sample size than anything you can put out there with Kaepernick. Anybody that really wants to pass off that Kaepernick has proven that he gives them a better chance to win statistically after three starts has their head in the clouds.

The 49ers don't need a QB that will make rookie mistakes like Kaepernick has done and is partially why they lost to St. Louis. That kind of stuff will only continue this year as teams start to figure him out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
But but but but but but it's still a small sample size and your entire premise is based on three starts and assumptive thinking. If we're going to run this ridiculous train of thought, the fact is that he is already dwindling as a QB with a steady decline in WPA. Wonder what that could mean? Maybe teams are starting to figure him out and he's too inconsistent due to a lack of experience and maybe that will lead to more struggles as the season wears on and, if they're lucky to make the playoffs with this kid at QB, he will get snuffed against good teams.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
That's really not the argument you want to go with if you're talking about Kaepernick and Smith. Kaepernick, again, didn't do much of anything in this game except for one play when the game was just about over.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pajicz View Post
I wouldn't really plan the parade after beating Dolphins with a somewhat average performance...
Quote:
Originally Posted by J StClair28 View Post
Playing Kaepernick is a cool, fun game to play to keep the interest alive, and (at first) make teams guess, but if you want to win the super bowl, you gotta put Smith back in eventually. I don't know historical stats/occurrences, but I'm gonna say I don't think you can win it with a rookie QB. Especially when you might have to go up against a team like the Patriots, Broncos or Texans.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Are you watching the games or looking at a stat sheet? His inconsistency is in the mental part of the game, not the physical. He's made inexperienced/rookie decisions quite a few times and in key moments. He didn't do anything until the 50 yard run when the game was pretty much over. Saying he's the picture of consistency is pretty short-sighted. Harbaugh did not make the right choice and it's going to bite him in the ass.
Lottery numbers please.

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