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01-21-2013, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by JohnLennon View Post
I understand your point, but what I am saying is that drafting is the most luck-dependent of any hockey strategies, wouldn't you agree? Trading for an established player involves a smaller gamble than drafting in the top 15.
I think trades are actually very high-risk sometimes. Due to the fact that the players are known quantities, it's extremely difficult to win a trade of players traded for players. Both GMs typically have good information.

In a rational trade market, you can trade bronze for bronze, silver for silver, or gold for gold. You cannot trade silver for gold or bronze for silver. If we offer Eric Cole to the Flyers for Wayne Simmonds, they will say no. If we offer Kaberle to Columbus for Tyutin, they will say no. Most trades are value-neutral, unless you take risks involving prospects and picks, e.g.:

1) Halak for Eller
2) Latendresse for Pouliot
3) Cammalleri, Ramo for Bourque, Holland and a 2nd rounder
4) Gomez for McDonagh
5) Hodgson for Kassian
6) Voracek and an 8th overall for Jeff Carter

Those are risky trades, luck-based trades, and those are the only trades you can win or lose by a lot and thus substantially improve your team. Trades involving involving proven quantities are typically lateral moves. They can slightly improve your team if you have complementary needs, but don't expect to go from 15th to 1st with just trades.

The other factor about trades, hinted at above, is that in order to trade for gold you have to offer gold. The Kingdom of Habsland is short on gold, and where we do have gold we have a single bar at best (e.g. Subban on defense). We're not wealthy enough to rock the trade market, as Los Angeles has been in the past year when they traded Schenn+Simmonds for Richards, Johnson+1st forCarter, and Teubert for Penner. Trades are not a viable team-building option for us right now. If we draft well, stockpile picks, and develop our players, trades *will* become the required team-building strategy in about 2 or 3 years.

If we trade some subset of Plekanec, Markov, Cole, Gionta, Bourque, Kaberle for other roster players we will remain level, approximately. There is almost no risk, but almost no possibility of reward as well. However, if we trade them for picks and prospects, we do risk declining from 13th to 15th place or so, but the potential reward is very high. Further, if we do decline from 13th to 15th, the damage is dampened by a superior lottery pick.

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