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01-23-2013, 06:54 PM
  #104
Beef Invictus
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
That's not entirely correct. BSH has made the point numerous times that Carle was actually better without Pronger. Last year, the list of defensemen with 35 points and 100 blocked shots is as follows: Matt Carle. End of list.
He only looked better because he's incapable of handling top 6 forwards, which he faced with Pronger. Usually when he was without Pronger he wasn't facing hard competition, which boosted his stats. When you consider his quality of comp was lower, that's not impressive.

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He is ideally a 2/3. It may be complimentary, but it's still pretty damn important.
It is. But only if he's paired with a true number 1 or strong partner. He can't carry a load himself, and for that reason he's not worth the cap hit he got.

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Coburn played with Timonen most of the year (Carle being most of what isn't most of), while Carle got to play with Marc-Andre Bourdon, seen as having been admirable as a replacement-level player. And Bourdon may be a bit better than that, I'd say he deserves the opportunty, but he can't get on the ice, so it's irrelevant at the time. However, that's going to affect the QoT, and no defenseman had a better 5v5 QoT than Coburn. That's not to say that he isn't good, but he was in position to look better offensively. Carle had to make sure a rookie defensemen didn't fail all over himself.
Interestingly, as I recall those rookie defenseman had higher GFon/60 than Carle. On top of that, I showed in the offseason that the team overall produced LESS goals while Carle was on the ice. However, by virtue of getting lots of ice time from necessity and giving the puck to a lot of hot players, his numbers get boosted. Like I said, his complete lack of threatening shot made him very easy to defend. If he shoots it's usually an easy block or a save resulting in a FO the Flyers lost more often than not. So, take away pass lanes and you contain him and take away offensive potential. It happened nearly all year, repeatedly. By the end of the year he was rarely able to pass to anyone but the near winger or partner, teams knew how to contain him.

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Carle had a better 5v5 P/60 than Coburn, the big difference being 5v5 A2/60. Only Giroux had a better 5v5 A2/60 rate on the whole team, and he was 2nd in the league in (total) assists. Carle was 7th in the league in 5v5 A2/60 among defensemen >50GP.
See the above.

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Now, it's all well and good if they were replacing Carle's minutes and production with someone. Luke Schenn is close on A2/60 (best defenseman on the Leafs), but he had sheltered minutes for the most part, and played for the Leafs, so he was still not very good. The other issue is what you're still trying to replace Pronger, too. Weber would have been worth in that role, but he's not here. So, now you're trying to hope Foster and Schenn combine to not be an abject failure in it.
The way I see it Schenn mostly replaces Carle, while having more long term upside. The downside is that he certainly doesn't replace Pronger, and we're left in a situation where a guy might be in over his head. So far EVERYONE is in over their head so I can't tell yet.

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The next man up is Gustafsson. Gus has been referred to as Timonen's eventual replacement, but I think that's a little too ambitious. Enough people here think their dog would be a better defenseman than Carle, but the guy who was to replace his minutes isn't currently on the roster. That's sort of the core issue here, because that's the role set up for him, and not only is he not here to serve it, but he was also replaced on the roster. And the team seemed content having Bruno Gervais take his spot. Gus' numbers reek of favorable puck luck despite having the best GF ON/60, his On Ice S% was almost 12% last year (obscene), while Kubina and Coburn were the only other ones above 9% (while Coburn was more than 1.5% better than Carle - and that's excluding all of Carle's blocked shots).
Agreed there. I'm still not sold on Gus, but the team could badly use him just for his puck moving abilities.

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They've replaced a 20-minute defenseman with nobody. For a team that needs a defensemen. He is only one man, but I bet the majority of people in this thread who are entertaining panic mode are the same people who celebrated Carle's departure. You want, you got it. We're chasing defensemen not available via trade, firing the coach, and entertaining the thought of Seth Jones going to another team because someone else won the draft lottery.
I think Schenn is meant to replace Carle's minutes. Most of his minutes were spent against the lower talent, with Timonen and Coburn pulling the heavier competition. I think this D is perfectly capable of covering the bottom 6 of any team. With Coburn crapping the bed and Timonen looking past his age we can't cover top 6 though.

Either way, Carle wouldn't have been the solution on this team without having Weber to put him next to. I doubt anything would be different. We might be better at getting out of the zone...but then what? He's still amazingly easy to defend. There's no reason to believe the team would suddenly be generating more offense with him on the ice, when overall they generated less while he was playing. Again, all that extra ice time due to injuries artificially boosted his totals. His one dimensional play in the offensive zone goes far to neutralize the benefit we get from his breakout passing.

And yeah. It's truly not likely we're getting Jones, especially since they expanded the lottery if I'm not mistaken.

Edit: It's also completely possible they turn things around, too.

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Last edited by Beef Invictus: 01-23-2013 at 07:06 PM.
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