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01-23-2013, 07:51 PM
  #109
JackStraw
Moving much too slow
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
That's not entirely correct. BSH has made the point numerous times that Carle was actually better without Pronger. Last year, the list of defensemen with 35 points and 100 blocked shots is as follows: Matt Carle. End of list.

He is ideally a 2/3. It may be complimentary, but it's still pretty damn important.

Coburn played with Timonen most of the year (Carle being most of what isn't most of), while Carle got to play with Marc-Andre Bourdon, seen as having been admirable as a replacement-level player. And Bourdon may be a bit better than that, I'd say he deserves the opportunty, but he can't get on the ice, so it's irrelevant at the time. However, that's going to affect the QoT, and no defenseman had a better 5v5 QoT than Coburn. That's not to say that he isn't good, but he was in position to look better offensively. Carle had to make sure a rookie defensemen didn't fail all over himself.

Carle had a better 5v5 P/60 than Coburn, the big difference being 5v5 A2/60. Only Giroux had a better 5v5 A2/60 rate on the whole team, and he was 2nd in the league in (total) assists. Carle was 7th in the league in 5v5 A2/60 among defensemen >50GP.

Now, it's all well and good if they were replacing Carle's minutes and production with someone. Luke Schenn is close on A2/60 (best defenseman on the Leafs), but he had sheltered minutes for the most part, and played for the Leafs, so he was still not very good. The other issue is what you're still trying to replace Pronger, too. Weber would have been worth in that role, but he's not here. So, now you're trying to hope Foster and Schenn combine to not be an abject failure in it.

The next man up is Gustafsson. Gus has been referred to as Timonen's eventual replacement, but I think that's a little too ambitious. Enough people here think their dog would be a better defenseman than Carle, but the guy who was to replace his minutes isn't currently on the roster. That's sort of the core issue here, because that's the role set up for him, and not only is he not here to serve it, but he was also replaced on the roster. And the team seemed content having Bruno Gervais take his spot. Gus' numbers reek of favorable puck luck despite having the best GF ON/60, his On Ice S% was almost 12% last year (obscene), while Kubina and Coburn were the only other ones above 9% (while Coburn was more than 1.5% better than Carle - and that's excluding all of Carle's blocked shots).

They've replaced a 20-minute defenseman with nobody. For a team that needs a defensemen. He is only one man, but I bet the majority of people in this thread who are entertaining panic mode are the same people who celebrated Carle's departure. You want, you got it. We're chasing defensemen not available via trade, firing the coach, and entertaining the thought of Seth Jones going to another team because someone else won the draft lottery.
Excellent post.

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