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01-23-2013, 08:14 PM
garret9's Avatar
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Game 3: Jets 4 @ Capitals 2

Underying Numbers

More "artisan" Corsi numbers from and Robert. These are just for the Washington game.
Again, remember that we don't know for sure how the match-up game went, but I tried to keep it in mind when I was watching the game.

For those that are wondering Corsi is generally used for "possession" time estimations while Fenwick removes blocked shots which generally is a better predictor of skill and effectiveness (because blocking shots is an individual and team skill).

Before I break down each line, I want to mention a few things. When stat guys are trying to make very strong predictions of players abilities they usually use Corsi/Fenwick close or tied. What the close and tied is indicating is the score. As, pretty much everyone knows, strategies change when you have a big lead (or are behind by a lot) and so to make a better estimate they only use when the game is close (within 2 points) or tied. This game is an example of that... after the second the Jets' as a team were with a +12 Corsi and +16 Fenwick... after the game they were -2 Corsi and +6 Fenwick. Combination of fire under the Caps butts and the Jets' trying to eat minutes caused a lot of shots on the Jets in the third (although from my end it looked *mostly* from non-dangerous perimeter areas). So take the numbers with a grain of salt and that in mind... especially lines (Kane's) that played a lot in the 3rd.

Ladd 10.2 08.2 76.9%
Antropov 10.2 09.2 76.9%
Little 13.2 11.2 90.9%
Kane -5.8 -05.8 33.3%
Jokinen -4.8 -00.8 33.3%
Wheeler -8.8 -04.8 25.0%
Ponikarovsky 1.2 -00.8 66.7%
Burmistrov 2.2 00.2 75.0%
Scheifele 0.2 -01.8 100.0%
Wright -7.8 -06.8 0.0%
Slater -4.8 -04.8 0.0%
Thorburn -4.8 -02.8 0.0%
*it's too bad the LAL line didn't score any goals at even strength, as they seemed to control possession... even if they got a huge offensive zone boost.
*KJW had an even strength goal and a impressive possession numbers when you combine the OZS, they seemed exclusively matched by the other teams top6 and the fire WAS lit in the 3rd.
*Scheifele was sheltered from the defensive zone as expected and the line was able to stay moderately in the black... also, Burmi was awesome that game (just saying).
* WST, check out those OZS... ouch... surprised they weren't beaten up more. Wright showed promise, and the Jets' did get their 2nd goal from the 4th line in as many games... although Thorburn was -1...

Byfuglien 7.5 4.33 38.5%
Enstrom 9.5 6.33 41.7%
Stuart -9.5 -0.67 55.6%
Hainsey -8.5 -1.67 75.0%
Postma 4.5 -0.67 83.3%
Clitsome -3.5 -7.67 75.0%
*Bahahaha, effing rights... even when Tobi and Buff don't get pushed into the O-zone they still come on top. Honestly they are underrated how good they are when together.
*Stu and Hains faced the bulk of the 3rd period counter-attack and did well. The huge disparity in Fenwick and Corsi is because they both blocked shots like MF's (Hainsey 6, Stuart 5)
*Postma has been outplaying Clitsome pretty bad... also to note Postma has been improving

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