All Encompassing Tanking/Rebuilding/Selling at Deadline Thread 2.0
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01-25-2013, 01:58 PM
Join Date: Jan 2013
Originally Posted by
You can get decent players in the mid rounds. But its hard to find superstars there. That's always been our problem. We ice 8th place clubs and then perpetuate the medicority with mid round picks. That's how we've built our teams over the years. Mid 1st round picks are great... but if that's all you have, you're making things hard for yourself.
The draft is linear. The first overall usually results in a better player than the 2nd, the 3rd better than the 4th and so on. A huge dropoff from 10 to 12? Maybe not. But if we had dealt some vets that season we would've gotten a return on those trades plus we would've sunk in the standings. And Logan Couture was drafted 9th that year.
You can cherry pick stars anywhere in the draft (just like I did with Couture.) It doesn't change the fact that superstars are found higher in the draft. So when you ask me is a 10th overall a rebuild pick, I'd say... sure it is to a lesser extent. You can get some very good players around 10th and you might luck out on a superstar there. But it's uncommon. Better to have a 10th than a 16th though and you still have to miss the playoffs to get the 10th.
Resident stats expert Seventieslord created a statistical study that examined the effectiveness of the draft several years back. I've posted it now and then on the rebuild threads because it's compelling. Basically if you have multiple top five picks, odds are you're going to land at least one if not multiple superstars. In fact, you have a better chance at a superstar with one pick in the top five than if you had five picks outside the top ten. The odds at getting a superstar are exponentially higher.
Gainey at least tried to build through the draft. I didn't feel like he tried to rebuild aggressively enough but at least he tried to go via the draft route. Problem is we were always drafting mid rounds which is where good but not great players are usually found so you wind up with good but not great players to build with and good but not great teams. His real problem was asset management and not trading away vets but letting them leave for nothing...
Look at the 4 core players we keep talking about. 2 were got via top five picks, another was gotten via a rebuild trade. 3 out of 4 ain't bad. Like I said, we do finally have some top end talent in the system. Price is as good as it gets, PK (a 2nd rounder) is amazing and Galchenyuk looks like he could be great too. Factor in Max and some of the prospects we have and things don't look so bad.
But how much better do they look if we add another top five this year? Or some prospects and mid round picks to go with whatever we get? We could accelerate the rebuild considerably.
No one is disputing that the higher the draft pick the better chance of getting a great player. Though I seem to recall we tried to move up into 7th to draft McDonagh because we didn't think we would last to 12th. So no Logan Couture anyways
I don't think anyone is suggesting we trade our picks for vets like the leafs have been doing. The point is that even though we've spent the past 10-15 years just trying to make 8th we've still managed to build a team with 4-5 elite players (Markov, Subban, Price, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk) if we hadn't traded McDonagh that would be 6. Not too mention some great but not quite elite players like Plekanec and Gorges. How many more do we really need, there will always be one more guy that would improve our chances just a little more.
We've been going for the playoffs every year and have been rebuilding at the same time. I prefer that to dismantling the team and sitting at the bottom for several years collecting "super-stars"
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