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01-25-2013, 06:02 PM
  #49
JQR
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Join Date: Jan 2012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IcedCapp View Post
you're using a ridiculously small sample size. I asked what the average expected performance for 2nd round picks was. Your response was "Red Wings."

I'll do the work for you, for 7 years, I guess.

2005 - Justin Abdelkader
2006 - Cory Emmerton
- Shawn Matthias
- Dick Axelsson
2007 - N/A
2008 - Peter Delmas
2009 - Landon Ferraro
- Tomas Tatar
2010 - Calle Jarnkrok
2011 - Tomas Jurco
- Ryan Sproul


Now, 2005 was just a date I picked, going to have dinner soon. If you want to go back further, feel free. I probably did a disservice to the sample to include 2010/2011 picks, because... well, it's the Red Wings, their picks aren't going to be playing within 3 years.

But my overall point remains: 2nd round picks aren't sure things. The Red Wings have developed late round picks into true Superstars players, but they have far more misses than hits.

I'm guessing if you did a full study on this (actually, someone probably has), you'll find that most 2nd round picks don't produce meaningfully at the NHL level.

edit: from your link - of their 2nd round picks that stayed in the organization (17), they played an average of 77.1 NHL games.
So you're also limiting it to 2nd round picks, and nothing beyond that? Then yeah, I guess you win...

My point was that aside from early first-rounders (and even they can be a bust, though not as often) the round that a player is picked is a very poor yard-stick for how they will perform at the NHL level. I probably should have just stated that outright.

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