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01-28-2013, 09:52 AM
  #22
Czech Your Math
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TAnnala View Post
Nice work as always CYM.

Jagr is actually not as immortal as I thought first. He is the best of the bunch but not with the same margins as 5 Art Ross (4 consecutive) would suggest.

BTW, what is wrong with the year 28?
I actually thought it confirmed his dominance, primarily his consistency at a very elite level for a long time.

First, looking at adjusted points by age for non-NA players:

From 22-28, the 4 times he led included 31 and 29 point margins (by far the largest margins from ages 18-41). He was second by 1 and 4 points to the career years of Ovechkin and Malkin. His injury in '97 hurt his ranking at age 24, but otherwise it was about on par with anyone (and in fact through 57 games it was Lemieux 91, Jagr 87 that year). Additionally, he leads at ages 33 & 34, and would likely have been at/near the top at age 32 as well. Using estimates for '05, that's 7 firsts, 4 seconds, 2 fourths and 3 fifths.

Now looking at adjusted points per 82 games, assuming 3/4+ of season played:

From 22-28, the 3 times he led included margins of 27, 26, and 25 point margins (the largest margins from age 18-39). He was second by 1 & 4 points to Ovechkin's two best years, and by 8 points to Malkin's career year. Again, he leads at ages 33 & 34, and would likely have been at/near the top at age 32 as well. Using estimates for '05, that's 6 firsts, 5 seconds, 2 thirds, 1 fourth and 3 fifths.

Another way to look at it:

Ages 20-24: Ovechkin 110 (114), Jagr 106 (113)
Ages 25-29: Jagr 117 (131), Selanne 106 (113)
Ages 30-35: Jagr 95 (97), Alfredsson 93 (101)

So take two years at age 18 & 19 which were basically as good as any non-NA forward except Kovalchuk... add Ovechkin's first 5 years in the league at ages 20-24... then take Selanne's main 5 year peak from ages 25-29, except 10-15% better... and add Alfredsson's amazing 6 year run at ages 30-35... then factor in 3 solid years in the KHL and a year-plus back in the NHL, which would probably compare to anyone at age 36-40 (considering his durability).

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