12'/13' Draft Thread: Something, Something... SETH JONES!
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01-28-2013, 02:46 PM
Join Date: Dec 2008
Originally Posted by
Not really no. It doesn't really make sense to use history to prove why Jones will be bad. The biggest reason why is that the history of those players don't have any bearing on Jones. They don't affect him in any way. As much as I don't like agreeing with Interactif or Epictus (just because of the near arrogant air of superiority they use when posting. They are both very knowledgeable however) they both are right on this.
While history is a good thing to look at and not repeat certain mistakes, it's very hard for me to say that the past examples of Johnson and Hedman mean Jones will be a bust like them. It just doesn't make much sense to do so. Yes those players didn't turn out the way some expected but that hardly means Jones won't. Because development differs so much between players, its very hard to judge a player by his draft status. It's one of the reasons I can't stand using draft pedigree as a point of comparison between players. Yes it can be an indicator of a player's expected upside, but it doesn't lock a player into a development path because of the position they were drafted in. A late round pick isn't a guaranteed bust or fourth line player because of the place they were drafted in. The very same, a player picked 7th overall won't make the NHL in 2 years because a past 7th overall pick did so.
In the very same reasoning, Jones isn't guaranteed to turn out worse than Jones long-term like Johnson and Hedman.
Also Johnson isn't the best example. I know some people continue to debate this (and for the life of me I cannot figure out why they wouldn't take this into account), but Johnson missed an entire season of development which DID set him back and likely limit his future upside. Yes some players can come back from certain injuries like that and be fine, but not everyone can. Johnson couldn't.
Hedman is also still only 22. He could very well become the player many thought he would in a few years. He could not. But he's got lots of time still.
I still think we desperately need a top line center. HAving a guy who drive possesion will do wonders for this team. But Jones would also help a lot.
If Jones turns out to be as good as people say he will be, then he would certainly be worthy of the 1st overall pick. There are not a lot of big, smooth skating D out there.
However, you could argue that defense is harder to project to the pro level than offense, since there is more of a thinking game involved and less instinct. Many of the top defensive prospects have come from the mid-late first round recently, while the top centers drafted have been almost a sure bet. Personally I would go with MacKinnon.
It would be horrible to finally get #1 and then have it be the only bust in the last decade. I'm not saying Jones will be a bust, just that it would be fitting for it to happen to the Leafs.
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