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01-28-2013, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by PavelDatsyuk View Post
For some sports, this is the case, mostly baseball, football, and basketball.

For hockey and soccer, which are such low scoring sports, a mathematical model cannot accurately capture what they need it to capture reliably.

You can further see that there is strong human input on the smaller markets, stuff like tier 3 Norwegian soccer and professional video game betting, where there are no statistics or very few that just simply capture wins and losses.

I agree that for baseball, football, and basketball the only way to win in the long run (in my opinion) is to have an accurate math model and that is how their lines are derived. Not so much for soccer, hockey, props, and the smaller markets.
:s there's plenty of goals scored/events in hockey to make a predictive model. One easy way to verify this is simply through the "pythagorean expectation". Using goals scored and against you can "predict" how many games a team should win. It's true that in soccer a simple pythagorean formula won't work but with a little tweaking you get the same results.

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