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01-28-2013, 06:06 PM
  #36
Mathletic
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Location: St-Augustin, Québec
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PavelDatsyuk View Post
For sure their goal should always be to set the most accurate opening line possible. But whether they do it with a model or with strict opinion (which if you think about it, is no doubt a model as well that only exists in that dealer's head) I thought was the debate.

In reality it has to be some combination of the two right? Opinion based on some fundamental principles.

I think eventually we will see models be used for hockey but I really don't think we are there yet. There is just too much that is not captured by the layman and advanced stats that exist today. And of the stuff that is captured even, a lot of it is not understood correctly/perfectly either.

Like I said, I've been working on my own NHL model for 3 years now. I feel like I've learned some interesting things from it but there are also such obvious, critical flaws to it that my head just "gets" but the model doesn't. And I can't tweak it to compensate for these things accurately. It can routinely spit out lines that are 20 cents off or something when my head spits out lines that coincide with the majority of openers.

If your friends can accurately model NHL hockey then thats very impressive (definitely possible, I feel I can eventually get there as well or I wouldn't have wasted so much time trying) but I feel like our brain can accurately process and sort out the available information better at this point (due to lack of enough good/comprehensive stats). The best approach then is probably based off a model but modify it based on your opinion, agree?
You have to remind yourself that it's not because we can't find something that this thing doesn't exist. You only have to follow http://www.hockey-reference.com/ they publish % each team has of winning the game. Granted they're not perfect, and tend to favor underdogs, it's still a good example that you can give good predictions through mathematical models.

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