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01-28-2013, 06:34 PM
  #41
Mathletic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Stated differently, my initial question would be:

If your model projects an opening line of Vancouver -145, and the consensus opinion is Vancouver -165, how often (and in what circumstances) does the closing line:

End up closer to Vancouver -145
End up closer to Vancouver -165
I don't have the answer to that question but my guess would be that the oddsmakers would move their line to -165 to balance money on each side to a certain extent. Maybe they wouldn't want more than 60% on one side so in that case their line would move until the money is evened out.

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