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01-28-2013, 06:41 PM
Bear of Bad News
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
I don't have the answer to that question but my guess would be that the oddsmakers would move their line to -165 to balance money on each side to a certain extent. Maybe they wouldn't want more than 60% on one side so in that case their line would move until the money is evened out.
That's not my point.

My point is that: if his model predicts Vancouver -145, and the consensus predicts Vancouver -165, if the line moves to Vancouver -145 by gametime, then the model is picking up something new.

Stated differently: it's not necessarily bad that his model does not replicate consensus.

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