Hockey Data and Sports Betting
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01-29-2013, 03:38 AM
Join Date: Jun 2011
Mathletic, no offense but I don't think you are really following the conversation.
Taco, no my model doesn't nail closers either, it's just plain ineffective in my opinion. Closers are simply the opening line modified for lineup changes (injuries or otherwise, goalie change is the most common) between the time the opener is posted and the puck drops. I am 99% sure on this. There are maybe very rare cases where this is not so (this being a derivative of openers being so sharp to begin with no doubt). With how fluid the Internet has made the online betting market now, there is almost never going to be a case where literally 10+ books all post the same off line and it is hammered 10 cents by bettors.
The crux of the debate is that I feel that a math model is not as effective as a brain in betting NHL hockey. Now, I can accept that I may just not be able to accurately formulate what it is I want to formulate into an algorithm (and i know this is true too) but I really feel like there are not enough statistics out there right now to be able to do so. There are certainly things I want to add that are just not out there available right now.
I'm not really even sure what we are discussing or debating anymore to be honest. If you can 100% confirm that NHL lines are being set by a series of math models then I would be very interested and would like to share/pool ideas for a starting point on developing something similar
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