Hockey Data and Sports Betting
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01-29-2013, 04:32 PM
Join Date: Jun 2011
It moves, sure (every game moves pretty much), but 99% of the time there is a logical reason for the move based simply on lineup changes. What I don't see happening is 10+ books coming out with an off number, something that is obviously wrong and that the book has the right (rightly or wrongly, I think its unfair personally) to cancel all wagers made at this off number. You do see this in some of the smaller markets, and some of them go uncorrected; that's what I was referring to.
Getting from the opener to the closer is usually logically deducible (of course the degree of movement is very complex and something I do struggle with). I find the opener is also very complex and I don't understand it at all (in the sense that obviously you can ballpark it based on common sense, but to truly understand it is another beast all together).
I do feel like I understand closers reasonably well though, and I feel like the majority of movement on a line comes from lineup changes, whether that's different personnel in or simply a different allocation of ice time within a given personnel set. There are a ton of factors that people use when capping a game that I feel don't hold much, if any, merit (stuff like revenge factor, etc). I tend to disregard those and focus in on how lineup changes (roster change/ice time change) would shift a line solely, and it tends to follow line movement a very, very high percentage of the time (I would ballpark around 75+%). The times it doesn't I would probably attribute to me incorrectly interpreting how different ice times or roster changes would affect winning %. (Whether this is accurate or merely variance, who knows but it does make sense in my head and it's reasonably consistent over the last two years) Again, how far the line moves is much more of a mystery to me and some insight on that would definitely be priority #1 or close for me right now.
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