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01-29-2013, 08:04 PM
  #8
Steve Bennett*
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vector209 View Post
I'm just posting this to strictly discuss the offense, not the defense, not AV, not Luongo, or when Kassian will go bald. If people wish to chime in and discuss the Canucks' scoring woes and where they think things might have gone wrong or whatnot, then I'd love to hear them.

I've noticed an increasing trend where the Canucks resort to going to OT or the shootout over the past season and, curious, decided to investigate to see if it was merely observation bias or actual fact.

According to stats pulled from ESPN, in the 2011-12 season, the Canucks scored 4 or more goals 19 times from October up until the end of December. That's a period of just under 3 months or 39 games, and in that time, they went to OT or the shootout 6 times (3 OT, 3 SO). Here is the link:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule...couver-canucks

Now, for the period of January until the end of the season in April (just over 3 months or 43 games), The Canucks scored 4 or more goals 12 times. During that span, they also went extra minutes 18 times (6 OT, 12 SO).

Cleary, this shows a disparity between the two segments, particularly the extra time required for the Canucks to conclude their games. Now, there's merit behind the argument that all the extra time that compounded over the second half of the season could have lead to their demise, in the sense that it contributed to fatigue and complacency.

Fast forward to this season, where the Canucks continue to display the same pattern. Throughout 6 games, they've scored 4 or more goals once and have gone extra time in 3 of them (all SO). Granted, this team isn't at full health yet, but the signs are alarming.

I decided to do even deeper digging, going back to their dominant 2010/11 season, just to see if there was an even greater discrepancy in stats:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule...couver-canucks

Over the entire year, the Canucks scored 4 or more goals 36 times (compared to 31 in the following year) and went to extra time 17 times (8 OT, 9 SO). Again, this is lower than the 24 total times they accomplished this in the subsequent season. Is their a correlation between sputtering offense and extra minutes played? Perhaps.

I'm sure the coaches and staff have examined this themselves, but it's just some food for thought for the fans, especially those who are still wrongly convinced that this team is offensively competent, when the signs clearly show a decline over the past couple of years.
That is interesting and worrying. I wonder about their slow starts they've done the last few years and if this 6 games to start the season is another part of that trend, and that they start to pick it up after the first 10 games or so or what. There are a number of factors worth considering

A) They play in a poor division and even if they do play poorly for the first quarter or third of this season they will luckily still have a good chance to get the third seed.
B) This is a short season, and maybe if Edmonton and Minnesota actually play somewhat decent hockey the Canucks could be screwed.
C) Kesler and Booth will hopefully be back sometime in February.

Will their goals go up when Kesler and Booth return and also when they get out of their usual starting funk to a season? I would think so but I have no crystal ball. But at the same time I'd be much happier if they went out and traded for a proven top 6 winger. That issue really needs to be addressed, even when Kesler and Booth are back. The last several cup winners have really deep forwards that could throw out three efficient scoring lines. Right now the Canucks have 1 and a half. Booth, Kesler and another guy would obviously give a more offensive dynamic.

It's difficult to just go get a proven top 6 forward, but luckily for us we are shopping Luongo so it's not that unreasonable.

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