Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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01-31-2013, 08:41 PM
Join Date: Jan 2013
Originally Posted by
Very interesting.. I'd love to see what you come up with.
The only thign i'd caution against using a time frame that goes all the way back to the 80's is i think you'll find success rate considerablly different, so using the two in a combined pool will skew "relevent"/recent numbers to seem less succesful.
It is the big issue with an event that happens once a year, the changes in the nature of the game, drafting, scouting, development all play apart so that the data your studieing from the 80's is from a very different creature then what your studying in the last 10 years.
just important to keep this in mind.
I know what you mean. While it's my goal to go that far back, I may start off with something "closer" and keep it to the 30-team era. Already, I can acknowledge that even in the 30-team era there are important differences in terms of statistics produced by different styles of play (ie: the crackdown on obstruction post-lockout), but I hope I can find some way to normalize statistics in there.
Once I get something that works for the 30-team NHL, I'll try to expand my timeframe further back.
I'm still working on putting the data together, but look forward to discussing it once results trickle in.
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