View Single Post
Old
02-04-2013, 01:14 PM
  #286
Jame
Dream '16
 
Jame's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Florida
Country: Pitcairn Islands
Posts: 35,569
vCash: 500
In 2012... the odds were
25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
6.2% - Anaheim Ducks - 80 points
4.7% - Minnesota Wild - 81 points
3.6% - Carolina Hurricanes - 82 points
2.7% - Winnipeg Jets - 84 points
2.1% - Tampa Bay Lightning - 84 points
1.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado) - 88 points
1.1% - Buffalo Sabres - 89 points
0.8% - Dallas Stars - 89 points
0.5% - Calgary Flames - 90 points


But in reality, Columbus really had these odds :
48.2% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points

Because the teams outside the bottom 5, couldn't move to #1

If the percentages stay the same, the worst team goes from a 48% chance to get the first pick...down to a 25% chance

I would hardly call 25% "most likely"

Jame is offline