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02-05-2013, 03:34 PM
  #175
Mystlyfe
We're Touched
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Philadelphia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlzner View Post
Right, because all players and prospects are the same...
Where on Earth did you get that from what I said? Are you trying to be intentionally obtuse?

History suggests that even the best recieved defensive pre-draft prospects have issues reaching their potential in the NHL. I'd take that as a pretty glaring red flag, and it's no different than other pieces of "common knowledge" that have been derived from observations (power forwards take longer to develop, young Swedes tend to struggle in the faceoff circle, etc).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
Going all the way back to Potvin in '73 we are only talking about 10 guys:

Potvin '73, Joly '74, Green '76, Ramage '79, Kluzak '82, Hamrlik '92, Jovanovski '94, Berard '95, Phillips '96, and Johnson '06.

Given that Berard and Kluzak had their careers ended very early because of injury that leaves 7 guys in almost 40 years after Potvin. The sample size is pretty small IMO.
Doesn't the lack of defensemen taken 1st overall suggest something to you, as well?

I'll attempt to both expand the potential data set, and limit it to the more recent era of improved/increased scouting. Let's take a look at all defensemen taken in the top five between 2000-2009.

2000 #4 - Rotislav Klesla
2002 #3 - Jay Bouwmeester
2002 #4 - Joni Pitkanen
2002 #5 - Ryan Whitney
2004 #3 - Cam Barker
2005 #3 - Jack Johnson
2006 #1 - Erik Johnson
2006 #4 - Thomas Hickey
2006 #5 - Karl Alzner
2008 #2 - Drew Doughty
2008 #3 - Zach Bogosian
2008 #4 - Alex Pietrangelo
2008 #5 - Luke Schenn
2009 #2 - Victor Hedman

Once again, we see a continuation of the trend we saw with defensemen going #1 overall. Few outright "busts" (Hickey, arguably Barker), but very few legit stars emerging (Doughty, Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester). For the most part they end up as solid contributors in one way or another, but they don't reach the kind of status you'd want/expect from a top five selection.

To quantify it, let's measure by all-stars (game or end of season team). Three of the fourteen defensemen qualify (21.5%). Seventeen of the thirty-two forwards chosen qualify (53.1%). FWIW, three of the four goalies selected also qualify (Lehtonen being the lone exception), but Rick DiPietro has obviously gone downhill since then.

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