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02-05-2013, 04:02 PM
  #78
truck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
thats' sort of what it looked like, the whole 50 50 thing as a baseline.


either way, when i did the division it did give m numbers that made sense to me- the highest rated forwards on th jets thus far this year were: wellwood ladd little and kane, and the lowest were burmi, clitsome, redmond, and schiefele.

of those 8 names the only one that looked out of place to me was burmi.

EDIT post Truck: Would it be possible to factor in "diminshing returns" on deviation from the 50 baseline? My math isn't good enough to go about that, but it seems like the right approach. all of this of course hinges on zone finish actually meaning something. Though i suppose is if you can establish that the actual baseline truly is 50% then you can figure something out.

EDIT: using my current method sedins wouldbe right around schiefele level right now- so i guess thats true. It does seem helpful when you restrict it to players with a zone start deviation of 40%-60%
My worry would be that the same variance that you see with the Sedins happens to a lesser extent with other players in the 40-60 spectrum. Something with diminishing returns could work, but I am not sure where you would set your baselines.

Maybe set up something where you compare actual results to expected results.


For example,

You could expect somebody with 70% O zone starts to end with 64% O zone finish

You would determine the value by averaging where the 70%ers finish and do the +/- off that baseline.

You would have to do the same for other O zone start percentages, but that is the set up that I could see working.

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