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02-06-2013, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
I think the statistics in the area of team fielding demonstrate that there is little to no correlation that would suggest that fielding is a strong predictor of team success.
Uh huh... very interesting. Two quick questions, though:

1) Why would there have been?

2) Who said there was?

While you are at it, can you please do some 'research' and 'analysis' to prove that there is no concrete correlative trend between AVG, WHIP, et al and winning percentage as well? Then you could also make your 'argument' that batting and pitching statistics don't equate to success either (which is exactly what you are attempting to say about defense, fyi)!

I mean, really, did you not read any of my last post. I mean, you quoted portions of it, so you must have at least glossed it over, no?

Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
I would contend that this team will live and die with injuries as any aging team will. If we miss the playoffs, it will be because one or more of our aging stars spends a significant time on the disabled list.... not because of any potential shortcomings we have in team defense.
Well, you are more than welcome to 'contend' that. It will make it easier for you (and inept Phillies management) to give the team another 'pass' and keep our 'window of opportunity' open with more 'tweaks around our core' after the upcoming disappointing season.

Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
I, for one, am not convinved that Young plays, that Ruff stays nor that Michael Young is going to be a defensive albatross in the manner you are suggesting. I expect this team to be middle of the pack defenisvely based principally on the notion that our defense up the middle is so strong and our pitchers will be successful in covering that weakness.
Well, Michael Young WILL be the defensive albatross in the manner I am suggesting... every empirical reference points to the fact. I, too, hold out hope that we will come to our senses and not put Delmon Young in RF - but I consider it a naive hope considering Chollie's track record and Amaro's offseason commentary on the subject.

As for our strong defense up the middle, could you direct me to it? Rollins is a legit GG SS, noone can deny that, but Utley was a statistical average fielding 2B when healthy and the past 2 seasons has been a tick below average (with a tangible downward trend between 2011 and 2012 - a 8% decrease in RF). With bad knees at age 34 you'll have to forgive me if I have concerns about his ability to 'bounce back to average' in the upcoming season.

As for Revere, in his career thus far (as small a sample size as it may be) he has been a slightly above average RF (91 career games) and average CF (134 career games) statistically. Even if we allow for the plausibility of development with the glove from the youngster (a rarity, fyi) he still only represents a pretty even trade-off from Victorino in CF - which is pretty damn worrisome when we are contemplating two cement pillars starting in our corner OF slots - maybe we will play a new version of the "no doubles defense" in which we have our 2B and SS stand in the OF gaps.

Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
Furthermore, your BABIP prediction (.35) is insane. No team in the last decade has had a number higher than the .331 put up by the Rays in 2006.
That team didn't have a Jimmy Rollins equivalent anchoring it, but position by position they were arguably better defensively, imo. .35 was always meant to be hyperbole, but posting the worst BABIP in a decade is absolutely what I expect... with Michael Young at 3B, Delmon Young in RF and Darrin Ruff in LF every day I honestly believe we will be a HISTORICALLY bad defense - THAT is not hyperbole.

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