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02-06-2013, 07:08 PM
  #84
Wheatking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vanwest View Post
You can't throw out Seguin's hot streak and Hall's cold streak though. You're cherry picking the stats. I could also throw out one of Hall's hot streaks and Seguin's cold streaks. Instead let's look at what the players actually did last year instead of manipulating the stats.
Hall had 53 points in 61 games last year while Seguin had 67 in 81.
I can see why the poll is so close.
It's not manipulating or ignoring stats. It's the opposite. It's recognizing an exception. Seguin never came close to repeating that hot streak. If two players finish with 30 goals/70 points and you have to choose who you'd rather have, wouldn't you want to know that one player scored 10 of his goals in a 9 game stretch and for the other 73 games of the season he wasn't actually close to playing like a 30 goal/70 point player? You'd want the more consistent player.

It's also arguing just for the sake of arguing. One player has 26 goals/51 points in his last 52 games while the other has 19 goals/57 points in his last 72 games. Say what you want but the stats speak for themselves. These aren't small sample sizes.

Even if you don't single out Hall's 9 game slump and look at his last 72 games compared to Seguin.

Seguin's last 72 games- 19 goals and 57 points
Hall's last 72 games- 30 goals and 64 points

...and that's with a completely out of character slump.

As for taking out Hall's best stretch from last season. Go ahead. I've done it before. He was very consistent last season and his best streak wasn't anything crazy. It's actually kind of tough to figure out which stretch would be his best. Break up his season into 10 game stretches and he will almost always have about 5-6 goals and 9-10 points. It would also be noted that by singling out Hall's best 9 game stretch, you're looking at 15% of his season. With Seguin it's 11%. 10 of Seguin's 29 goals came in 11% of his season. I seriously don't know what's bad about recognizing that...

After Hall's cold streak, only once did he go more than 2 games without a point and it was 3 games. He also had 11 shots in those 3 games. His three longest goalless streaks were two stretches of 4 games and then one 3 game stretch. Other than that, he never went more than 2 games without a goal. Seguin went 3 games without a point 4 times after his hot streak. He also went 4+ games without a goal seven times. Including a 10 game stretch, a 6 game stretch and two 5 game stretches without a goal. What was considered a slump for Hall last season was almost a common occurrence for Seguin.

Say what you want about hockey sense. Going back to last season Hall has at least a point in 64% of his games while Seguin is at 53%.


Last edited by Wheatking: 02-06-2013 at 07:14 PM.
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