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02-07-2013, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by barneyg View Post
It's a pointless pissing match but IIRC, somehow the yearly estimates are more accurate than the actual counts. I'm too lazy to find the explanation but it's on the internets somewhere.

Regardless, the Winnipeg and Quebec City CMAs are roughly the same size, but QC has quite a bit more population in a 90-minute radius (Beauce, Trois-Rivières). Not sure how that really matters.
Winnipeg's population is much more concentrated in the city, so I expect Winnipeg to be slightly better off than Quebec City at the gate. Quebec's City's biggest mistake may be making an arena that is too big for the market. Quebec City will likely be better off on TV and corporate support. On fan appeal, it's tough to say which one is better at the moment. On raw revenues and profits, it's tough to say which one is better, but having more of it's population closer to the city center is a clear advantage for Winnipeg. One of the reasons the NHL does better in Canada is because our population is more concentrated towards big city centers. Don't get me wrong though. With the dollar at parity, Quebec City will probably do just as well as Winnipeg has. When doing comparisons, you should look at city population before metro-population.

Winnipeg 663,617
Quebec City 516,622
Hamilton 519,949
Mississauga 713,443
Brampton 523,911

NHL Cities with less than 500k in City population:
Raleigh 426,708
St. Louis 356,587
Anaheim 353,643
Tampa 343,890
Pittsburgh 311,647
Saint Paul 287,151
Newark 278,154
Buffalo 276,059
Glendale 246,531
Sunrise 90,793
Uniondale 23,299

NHL Cities with more than 500k in City population:

New York 8,453,558
Los Angeles 4,065,585
Chicago 2,853,114
Toronto 2,615,060
Montreal 1,649,519
Philadelphia 1,556,396
Dallas 1,299,543
Calgary 1,096,833
San Jose 948,279
Detroit 910,920
Ottawa 883,391
Edmonton 812,201
Columbus 769,360
Winnipeg 663,617
Boston 645,169
Nashville 635,710
Denver 610,345
Vancouver 603,502
Washington 601,723

Quebec City's revenues should be somewhere between 0.8 to 1.1 times that of Winnipeg's. Most primary tickets come from season ticket holders, which logically should come from people closer to the arena. When using the metro population as your base, you are disregarding the "cost of travel". Believe it or not, Winnipeg is NOT a "small market" and neither is Quebec City. Especially with the dollar at parity, both markets should be close to top 10 in the near future at a bare minimum 1M a game in ticket revenue - 42M ticket revenue for the season - 100M total revenue

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