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02-07-2013, 05:31 PM
Disparity By Design
Join Date: Feb 2006
Originally Posted by
I don't see it. Pavelec is due to get a lot of coin in the coming seasons and I doubt Winnipeg will buy him out, so they are either stuck with him or they trade him. The trade market for a goalie paid that well who is struggling isn't very good, ask Bryzgalov. And if he turns it around, then why deal him?
And if he doesn't turn it around, the Jets will give him every chance to do so before they give up. As such, I'd be shocked if he's not essentially guaranteed to be the Jets starter until sometime into next season, no matter how bad he is.
Bernier will likely be moved by then.
As for the deal, on a pure value aspect, I'd be all over the 2nd+Postma+Montoya deal. Postma I think is a severely underrated prospect who will be a very good two-way defender, but that said, that's not what the Kings really need and would just be to much behind Doughty, Voynov and Martinez. Redmond meanwhile would fit in a bit better, but his cost likely shouldn't be very much.
I can't see Winnipeg on the radar for Bernier, but if he was, and if a defenseman was part of the deal (which seems very likely under the current situation) I'd imagine the defenseman coming the other way would be Mark Stuart. His cap hit is very reasonable ($1.7 mill) and he's signed into next year and plays a style somewhat similar to Rob Scuderi, who is a UFA after the season. And odds are DL is looking to trim some payroll while staying competitive for next year as we will be very tight to the cap.
Bernier for Stuart and a 2nd?
Mark Stuart is more Matt Greene than Rob Scuderi. He hits hard, but is not good positionally and does not have a very good first pass. He is almost exactly Matt Greene, good shot blocker, clears the net, charcter player. But not even close to someone you want in your top 4. If the Kings wanted someone to replace Scuderi, they'd be better off targeting Ron Hainsey. He plays a safe game and can handle tough minutes unlike Stuart. He is UFA, but he can probably be had for much less than Scuderi on his next contract.
Honestly, I would put Postma above Martinez at this point. I think Martinez is struggling a little with the top 4 role, seems like he is going to be more suited to the bottom pairing role. Postma has yet to get a serious chance in a top 4 role, but he is dynamite in the bottom pairing role (better than even Martinez, IMO) not quite as good defensively maybe (but damn close), but a better skater, better shot, better offensive awareness, better first pass, etc. I really like Postma and would not want to trade him, but I like Bernier and the Jets problems are in net.
Don't think Jets are ready to give up on Pavelec, particularly with that contract, but having a goalie to push Pavelec might help him regain his focus. He has not been that same since his strong 10-11 when Chris Mason was getting his fair share of starts. I don't think he can handle a regular stater role, starting to look like 1a or 1b type goalie, and a Bernier to push him might make for a great tandem.
But your probably right that the Jets will try to ride Pavelec for now. It's a disappointing since they are ready in all areas to take the next step and the goaltending is killing them right now. We are outplaying opponents, but have had some really disappointing goaltending that is holding the Jets back.
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