Calculating Magic Number
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02-07-2013, 07:21 PM
Join Date: May 2011
This is also a good resource for finding out how many wins a team needs to clinch the playoffs.
What they do is simulate every remaining game of the season, and then run the simulation 32 million times. A team is declared "in" the playoffs if none of those simulations show them missing the playoffs ...
So technically these are not the same as magic numbers; when a team is declared in the playoffs, what that really means is "according to our model, their probability of missing the playoffs is less than 1 in 32 million".
The exact formula used to determine the probability of a team winning a game isn't clearly documented, so take it for what it's worth.
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