Rangers/Avalanche (Ryan O'Reilly)
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02-08-2013, 10:52 PM
Join Date: Jul 2004
Originally Posted by
Ok, let's try this from another angle. Keep in mind this is not MY logic, but rather yours for bringing up O'Reilly's 'lack of consistency' as dropping his value.
This will be my last response to you in this discussion--not trying to be rude. I just need to get some real work done tonight. I will start off by stating that you either didn't understand, or refuse to see, my logic. Please try READING it logically, rather than seeing it as some attack on your guy. It isn't. I like RO'R as a player.
McDonagh = 1.5 seasons where an injury and the inconsistent play of Del Zotto allows him to move up. He does well. Plays like a #2 but is still far from being established as one. Essentially leads your team from the blue line for the season.
O'Reilly = 1 season where an injury and the lack of production from Stastny allows him to move up. He does well. Plays like a #1 but is still far from being established as one. Essentially leads our team from the middle of the ice for the season.
Some corrections--McDonagh did not "move up" because of the inconsistent play of Del Zotto. The ONLY thing connecting Del Zotto and McDonagh is the fact that McDonagh's play allowed the Rangers to send MDZ down to the AHL for some much needed work on his defensive game.
Also, O'Reilly has NEVER played like a #1. It's not about not being established as one. He isn't one. He's never played like one. He played like a very good #2 last year. I know he's your player, but please be real here. Would you ever argue that Ryan Callahan was a first line RW? Of course not. He's a very good 2nd liner--putting up (consistently) the same combination of point totals and Selke-calibre defense that you love in O'Reilly (with physical play to boot).
Your point, doesn't matter because O'Reilly is still only a #2 center and his past track record is 26 points a season. But that was put up as a 18/19 year old shutdown center playing with 3rd/4th line wingers. Had McDonagh played at 18/19 and been with 3rd pairing defenders i'm sure his play at that time versus now would be irrelevant to you.
Maybe McDonagh would have looked worse. I have no idea. All I know is that McDonagh today is a player who has established through parts of three seasons just what kind of player he is. THAT is my point (refuting your point that he and O'Reilly are somehow supposed to be of comparative value).
My point? He's far from being a product of Landeskog and easily more than held his own last season. He has a nice slap shot, strong skating, through the roof hockey IQ and is one of the best defensive forwards in the entire league. If he has good wingers to play with he will elevate their games because of his defensive acumen and could pot 25g, 40a in an average season.
This is exactly the kind of nonsense I've been talking about all thread. You offer a laundry list of intangibles. Again, every team, if one listens to that team's homer fans, has "one of the best defensive forwards in the entire league." They also have guys with "through the roof hockey IQ." You know what? None of that matters unless it shows up on the ice and in the score sheet on a regular basis. There have been parades of players with those same attributes that never amounted to much more than 3rd line plugs. Some of those plugs have had a nice season or two along the way (look at Boyle's 20+ goal 35 point season from a couple years ago--that's not who he is and he's not likely to ever repeat those numbers--we know that now). The ONLY thing that separates the plugs from the top-six guys is the ability to produce year in and year out.
So you'll have to forgive me when I assume you don't know much about him, because in one breath you claim players that show their worth don't get stuck behind others (Staal, Seguin, Couture... Couturier today, etc) and in another you demonstrate that McD was stuck if it weren't for favorable situations, yet claim him as a stud.
Please don't put words in my mouth. The Staal situation is clearly a rare event--he was behind two of the best players in the entire league. That wasn't O'Reilly's situation and it wasn't McDonagh's. Both of those players were behind eminently displace-able players (Duchene had better pedigree, but he was also a young guy who had no guarantee on a spot--Stastny had more of a rope because of his past success, but there are still ways around that, like playing one of the kid centers on a wing). O'Reilly, largely due to the fact that his offense only came in spurts and droughts, never threatened to displace anyone in his first two seasons. McDonagh played well enough that they sent one guy down to the minors to work on his game and traded a respected vet. McDonagh's play earned him that spot. O'Reilly had to wait for an injury.
I don't even think O'Reilly is worth McDonagh, but your logic dictates both are worth less than Staal, which is outright silly.
You fail to grasp the logic, then, as I said nothing of the sort and you can only claim otherwise through logical fallacy.
Again--the logic is this:
McDonagh has shown through parts of three seasons now that he IS the player he looked to be when he led the Ranger defense. O'Reilly has not, and whether you like it or not, it will impact his value if the Avs try to trade him (which I hope they don't do--I'm hopeful that RO'R will be pressured by the isolation now that the other holdouts have signed reasonable second contracts and he's standing alone).
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