Thread: Zachary Fucale
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02-09-2013, 11:22 AM
  #38
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Golie View Post
The best way to get a world class goalie is to hire Ken Hithcock as your coach. Works every time.
Ken Hitchcock on average has only improved goaltending by 0.004 SV%...

That would put Pavelec from 37th 0.885 to 32nd 0.889 (on average)...

Good defense/defensive-systems improve SA and GAA (as noted by STL currently being the lowest SA/60 team in the NHL), not really sv% which is more reflective on the goalie.

The same thing is true of all coaches like this... Tippett (another similarly thought of coach) for example improves goalies by average of 0.006%.



Just to give some ideas of how these effects work... 2012-13 season so far:
5v5 SA/60:
STL = 21.7 (1st)
LAK = 22.9 (2nd)
PHX = 26.1 (6th)
WPG = 28.7 (19th... and improving each game)

5v5 SV%:
WPG = 900 (21st)
STL = 898 (24th)
PHX = 892 (26th)
LAK = 876 (30th)

... It's a small sample size but it shows you how defensive systems don't really affect the goaltending that much, but shots against. A goalie who lets in the same percentage of shots but faces less will have better GA, win more games, and then look better, basic math.
Now I specifically showed those teams for two reasons:
1) I wanted to show how small sample size any goalie can do bad, as 3 of those teams should improve past us and also I think we'll have better than 0.900 before the season is up (not sure by how much though)
2) I wanted to show that 5v5 our team hasn't been that bad, both team metrics (SA) and goalie metrics (SV%), and really it's the PK that's killing us, which IMO is doing worse than it should mostly out of luck...


Last edited by garret9: 02-09-2013 at 12:14 PM.
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