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02-11-2013, 01:27 PM
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
I dont think the Valentines Day storm tracks too far north... if you look at the spread of the guidance, its the NAM (furthest north) with the EURO (furthest south)... Granted the Euro has been making leaps and bounds towards a more northerly solution, I really think LI will see another 3-6 inch snowfall at least

One problem with model guidance is that they tend to overdo warmth in the boundary layer, especially when theres snowpack so really anywhere not immediately to the South of LI and I think we're in a place to get hit by snow.

As for this weekend, yeah the potential is CRAZY... Such a highly amplified pattern, its hard to buy the idea that the EURO is spitting out that no coastal will develop to the south of us, although the Canadian brings a low too far to the west for us... We'll really have to wait until after the Valentines Day storm moves out before the environment will be fully set for the models to understand whats going to happen this weekend

In fact, i'd be more concerned about rain this upcoming weekend, if the trough sets up too far west we'll get torched by any low as itll run over or to the west of us... It'll become MUCH clearer later in the week though
Ahh a thread where weather people can argue! Love it! Im going to take the low end of the 3-6 forecast as I really think the Euro has the more realistic track as i dont think the storm pulls away from the mid atlantic the way the NAM shows. Im usually a big NAM guy btw.

As for this weekend, i think we see a rain event early, switching to sleet, then to all snow. It will bring down the totals, depends on how much amplification we see south of LI

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