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02-11-2013, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
Initial response : really not ten tries. After all, discounting Hertl and Coyle is only fair since it is too early to tell.

Hannan in 97 - hit
Cheechoo (would be a first round pick today) in 98 - hit
Jillson (kind of) - bust
Goc - middling-to-hit; certainly his performance outside of SJ would suggest this
Morris - Injury problems; I give Burke a pass here
Bernier - middling
Kaspar - bust
Wishart - bust
Petrecki - bust
Coyle - too early to tell
Hertl - too early to tell

So of the 9 selections (as I have included Cheechoo), he has Hannan and Cheechoo as strong hits, Bernier and Goc as moderate hits, and Jillson, Kaspar, Wishart, and Petrecki as the busts.

Actually, that isn't a very encouraging record. Mostly, because the majority of busts have come in the most recent picks. This points to an organizational ideolgical mistake. I can point out Kaspar (size) and Wishart/Petrecki (defensive defensemen with size are never ideal first-round-picks). Even Bernier is not that great considering he was picked in a very strong draft class...
Quibble on Bernier. He would rate out as a 4th liner (not a reserve) which is below the average on a converted pick for that part of the draft. Jillson rates out as a reserve, a bust. Goc is almost exactly average for that part of the draft for a converted pick. Hannan would rate out as a #3 although he had a short stint as a #2 dman, #4 is average for a converted dman. So Hannan was an absolute win. Pickles is sitting on the #2/#3 fence also. Cheech rates out as a second liner, another win. I used 3 years of best production to get the ratings to eliminate one-year wonders.

I agree on it being way too soon on Hertl and Coyle. Coyle is a good chance to get a shoulda/coulda because Etem was the very next pick. A couple more years for that shoulda/coulda. Mitera was a good shoulda/coulda for Wishart, second pick after. In both cases, similar players and good for org comparisions. On Wishart/Mitera, it is double bust.

Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
But again, you are looking historically, which in my mind is fairly irrelevant. The Sharks made mistakes in the past, there is no debating that, the point is they have learned from them and have gotten better and better since. At this point they are one of the best drafting teams in the league, they have to be because they never have high picks.
Not even close to the best. They may lack picks, but they are losing ground in quantity. In the study I did from 91-03, they made out on quantity as nearly top rated (top 3) but were a bit behind on
quality (Detroit #1 by a mile). When I say quality, that is level of skill per converted pick. Quantity was just the total number of picks converted. I also analyzed by weighting pick position and number of picks and total skill selected. The Sharks were between 5 and 10, but that included 3 guys who became starting goalies. See above about evaluating. I agree with Sry10 that it is way too soon on Hertl and Coyle.

Last edited by SJeasy: 02-11-2013 at 02:53 PM.
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