Thread: Rosters and Ratings: NHL 13 player growth
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02-11-2013, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by nicholas89alex View Post
this is a very good post. I really like the role chart and last paragraph. but my biggest problem with development is there's no rhyme or reason. with the system I proposed I was trying to give an explanation on why your highly drafted players either bust or take 7 years to crack an nhl lineup. my examples probably weren't great so let my try again using your role chart. the percentage just shows how likely each individual is to reach that role, i.e. if they have a 35% in 2nd line player they have a good chance of being a 2nd line player

average top 10 pick- 1% generational talent, 4% superstar, 25% first line, 30% second line, 15% 3rd line 15% 4th line 10% bust chance
1st round pick- 2% superstar, 15% first line, 25% second line 20%third line, 20% fourth line 18% bust chance
2nd round pick- 1% superstar, 10% first line, 20% second line 20%third line, 20% fourth line 29% bust chance
3rd round pick- .5% superstar, 5% first line, 15% second line 25%third line, 20% fourth line 34.5% bust chance
4th round pick- .1% superstar, 1% first line, 5% second line 20%third line, 30% fourth line 43.9% bust chance
5th round pick- 0% superstar, .5% first line, 1% second line 20%third line, 30% fourth line 48.5% bust chance
6th round pick- 0% superstar, .1% first line, .5% second line 10%third line, 20% fourth line 69.4% bust chance
7th round pick- 0% superstar, 0% first line, .1% second line 5%third line, 20% fourth line 74.9% bust chance
these are averages so occasionally you would find late round picks that have small 1st line potentials that end up being gems. also I think the potential would have to change if someone has a big season. so if a 4th round prospect scores 30 goals he would receive a bump in his 1st line and 2nd line chances and lower his bust chances. do you think this is any better than my previous proposal?
I would add a .001%-.01% chance of superstar for the later (5-7) rounds, but that's just me.

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