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02-11-2013, 05:12 PM
  #97
wingnutks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
I dont think the Valentines Day storm tracks too far north... if you look at the spread of the guidance, its the NAM (furthest north) with the EURO (furthest south)... Granted the Euro has been making leaps and bounds towards a more northerly solution, I really think LI will see another 3-6 inch snowfall at least

One problem with model guidance is that they tend to overdo warmth in the boundary layer, especially when theres snowpack so really anywhere not immediately to the South of LI and I think we're in a place to get hit by snow.

As for this weekend, yeah the potential is CRAZY... Such a highly amplified pattern, its hard to buy the idea that the EURO is spitting out that no coastal will develop to the south of us, although the Canadian brings a low too far to the west for us... We'll really have to wait until after the Valentines Day storm moves out before the environment will be fully set for the models to understand whats going to happen this weekend

In fact, i'd be more concerned about rain this upcoming weekend, if the trough sets up too far west we'll get torched by any low as itll run over or to the west of us... It'll become MUCH clearer later in the week though
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
Its funny cuz most of the time I'm not a fan of the NAM . Really, most of the time the NAM should really be used mostly for determining convection within storms rather than large scale synoptic patterns, but in this case it, along with the GFS, has seemed to lead the way with respect to the models this go around when compared to the foreign models (AKA the exact opposite situation of "Nemo"). I think it'll be more north of the Euro as the S/W associated with the storm keeps getting stronger and more amplified every single run of the ECMWF while the GFS and NAM for the most part hold serve. Surface temps are the biggest problem for LI, but like I said, I think models will overdo surface temps due to all this snow cover by several degrees...

IF I had to make a forecast now, i think id be comfortable with a general 3-6, although I reserve the right to change that as we get closer to the storm on Wed night
NAM was all wrong with Nemo until the last minute. GFS did a horrible job. ECMWF was pretty close the whole time, but underestimated the QPF, but then again who would have believed the last minute NAM with 4"+ QPF.

Right now the biggest difference in this weekends storm is the Euro has the upper trough deeper and further east so by the time the storm bombs out it will be north east of long island.

As far as the impact of the snow pack, it matters but most of the snow back is down stream of the system... from LI and northeastward. The snow pack will have less of an impact than if it was in PA/OH/NY/NJ

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